Ukraine War: Limitations Of A European Peace Plan

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has placed himself at the centre of European efforts to play peacemaker between US President Donald Trump and Ukraine라이브 바카라 Volodymyr Zelensky, after a fiery exchange between the two in the Oval Office last Friday.

Starmer, as well as French President Emmanuel Macron, is leading Europe라이브 바카라 efforts to drum up support for Ukraine, not just through financial and military help. After a crucial meeting of European leaders called in London by the British PM on Sunday, emergency plans were drawn up to confront the unprecedented situation. Zelenskyy flew in straight to London after his bruising encounter in Washington and was relieved to step out into the warmth of Europe라이브 바카라 embrace. As he walked into 10 Downing, crowds had gathered to cheer him on.

The long and short of Sunday라이브 바카라 meeting was for the UK and France to work out a peace plan for Ukraine and present it to the US. Zelenskyy also said he was willing to sign the minerals agreement for which he had gone to Washington in the first place. European leaders also pledged to help Ukraine both with arms and funds. Starmer had already said earlier that the UK was willing to put boots on the ground.

The British and French peace plan for Ukraine is something that will never be accepted by Russia. Besides calling for a one-month ceasefire, Starmer and Macron said that both countries are willing to provide peacekeepers in Ukraine to ensure that Russia does not take more territory. That is a red line for Russia. Considering that the war actually began because of NATO expansion in Europe, Putin will never agree to have European troops in Ukraine. Both Britain and France too know that Russia will never agree; hence, perhaps this is a maximalist position to start the negotiations.

Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, said after the meeting that the summit had agreed to "desperately re-arm" and provide support to Zelenskyy to strengthen Ukraine라이브 바카라 defence and turn it into a "steel porcupine."

Both Starmer and Macron were careful to point out that American support was essential for a peace plan to work. No one in Europe is in a position to cut off the US, which has provided the continent with a security umbrella since the end of the Second World War.

Europe cannot risk keeping the US out. The idea is not to antagonise the temperamental American president and keep on his right side. Starmer insists that the "coalition of the willing" plan must have United States backing. Donald Trump's America was a "reliable ally," he said.

"Europeans (UK included) are not in a position to replace the US in terms of quantity of hardware or intelligence—the latter being an important component of US support to Ukrainian forces until now. They can continue to provide financial support and increase their deliveries of arms, but they don’t have a continent-wide military industrial base like the US.

"So even if they significantly boost arms production (anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, for instance), which will take time, it will not entirely make up for lost US weaponry if the US ceases deliveries now (that라이브 바카라 not quite clear yet),’’ says Philip Golub of the American University in Paris.

He goes on to add, "Russian capabilities should not be overestimated either, however. The Russian armed forces from what we can gather are not in great shape (very significant losses for small gains). Also, the Russian economy is far from being healthy—the war mobilisation (war economy) masks underlying weaknesses and the country라이브 바카라 rather deep dependence on China for imports and exports. So, the war could drag on with Ukraine resisting thanks to increased EU support—but all key actors are looking now for a political solution."

That is the good news. For US involvement, an important element is the mineral deal. Without Zelenskyy agreeing to that, Washington will walk off. However, Ukraine라이브 바카라 president has little goodwill in the administration after the showdown. Trump and his people have been arguing all along that the mineral deal would be a security guarantee for Ukraine, as Russia would be wary of US reaction with American companies working out of Ukraine. That remains the argument for a US security guarantee for that country.

Trump라이브 바카라 liking for the Russian leader is widely known. In fact, it was Zelenskyy라이브 바카라 warning that Putin cannot be trusted that started the slanging match in the White House. Trump sympathises with Putin for being wrongly accused by Democrats of Russian interference during the 2016 presidential elections. Knowing all this, European leaders are afraid that Trump will sell Ukrainian interests down the drain unless they have a say in the negotiations.

Ukraine as well as European leaders are concerned that a deal on Ukraine would be signed and sealed between Washington and Moscow, without the participation of Kyiv.

However, from the beginning, it was clear that Trump was not planning to keep either Ukraine or Europe out of the negotiations. What a majority of Europeans know but are unwilling to accept is the fact that the Ukraine war was basically a proxy war between Russia and the US. Just as in the Cold War years, when the US and the former Soviet Union fought their proxy wars across Asia and Africa. This time, however, Russia is directly involved, and Ukraine, unfortunately, has had to suffer the consequences.

“A number of countries” agreed to commit troops to a peacekeeping force during the summit, Starmer said, but he added that he would leave it to individual nations to announce their participation.

It reflected a similar statement on defence spending made after the summit by NATO chief Mark Rutte. If the war continues indefinitely, will Europeans be ready to keep funds and guns flowing? Unlikely.