A Trigger Away

THE ongoing confrontation between Afghanistan and Iran is a classic example of radical Shias taking on radical Sunnis. Ruled by a Shia clergy since the late Khomeini's Islamic revolution in 1979, Iran has now come face-to-face with an unstable neighbour like Afghanistan where Sunni mullahs, known to the world as the Taliban, are in power. Both emphasise their commitment to Islam and yet they are unable to co-exist. In fact, the Ayotollahs who rule Iran consider the Taliban illiterate and lowly while the latter privately condemn all Shias as "kafirs" (infidels).

The recent round of tension began with the Taliban's capture of Mazar-i-Sharif, a pro-Iranian stronghold in northern Afghanistan. But the immediate cause for confrontation is the kidnapping of 10 Iranian diplomats and a journalist by the Taliban. Iran, demanding the release of its citizens, has amassed about 70,000 troops on the border and practically everyone in Tehran feels an attack is imminent, notwithstanding the routine official denials. Needless to say, if that happens, the repercussions for the region and the Islamic world beyond would be serious.

Since these pressure tactics have not resulted in the release of the hostages, most Iranians are veering around to the view that an attack is the only option. Even the moderate president, Seyed Mohammad Khat-ami, vowed last week that Iran would never tolerate insecurity at its borders or be indifferent to the fate of "our nationals, especially our diplomats, taken hostage in violation of international law". Khatami denounced the Taliban and said: "We cannot open our border to bandits, criminals and drug traffickers. Defending our border security and lives of our citizens is our natural and legal right. We will exercise our rights in whichever way it will serve our interests." However, the supreme leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei was quoted as saying that there would be "no confrontation" with the Taliban.

But the crisis has a long history. The Taliban ascendancy since their emergence in the autumn of 1994 has translated into the gradual eclipse of Iranian influence in Afghanistan. By capturing Herat and other southwestern Afghanistan provinces like Farah and Nimruz in September 1995, the Taliban found themselves knocking at the doors of Iran. Exactly a year later, they took Kabul by ousting the pro-Iran president Burhanuddin Rabbani and his defence minister Ahmad Shah Masood.

The fall of Kabul also meant the defeat of the Hezb-i-Wahdat, a Shiite organisation of ethnic Hazaras living in central Afghanistan and western Kabul. (The Hazaras—Persian-speaking Afghans—are more educated and prosperous than the other ethnic groups in the area and have close connections with Iran.) And by capturing most of northern Afghanistan, including the Hezb-i-Wahdat stronghold of Mazar-i-Sharif, this August, the Taliban snatched the few remaining opposition possessions and reduced Tehran's influence in the war-torn country to almost zero. In fact, Amnesty International said thousands of Hazaras were killed during the takeover of Mazar-i-Sharif by the Taliban government, which is only recognised by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

"These were revenge killings," says Naj-mushahar Bangash, spokeswoman for the World Pashtoon Anjuman in faraway Birmingham. Last year, the Taliban had triumphantly entered Mazar-i-Sharif, but just when they had settled down, there was a counter-attack and hundreds of them were killed.Hence, the revenge thesis.

Iran could not afford to take such a setback lying down. As for the current standoff, the Taliban didn't help matters by first denying that they had captured the diplomats and later hinting that they may have been killed by Talib soldiers acting on their own. They later freed five Iranians, out of the over 50 now in their custody, as a gesture of goodwill and on Pakistan's prodding but this has failed to pacify Iran. Said Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharrazi: "The Taliban should come forward with an appropriate reply and take responsibility regarding our hostages".

THERE are reports that the Iranians may use the Afghans who are opposed to the Taliban to launch an offensive. Many had taken refuge in Iran after their defeat in Herat and elsewhere in Afghanistan and could start a guerrilla war in the Taliban-held border provinces. A concentration of over 4,000 Afghans was reported in the Torbat-i-Jam and Tayyabat areas bordering Herat and in Iranian territory on the border with Afghanistan's Nimruz province. Reacting to the move, the Tali-ban have started arming villagers in Nimruz and sending reinforcements to Herat and Farah provinces to check any infiltration from the Iranian side. There were also indications that the Taliban were trying to enlist the support of Iranian Sunnis against the Shia-dominated government in Tehran and were willing to host dissident Iranian elements in Herat.

It appears that Iran massed its troops on its border with Afghanistan not only to deter the Taliban but also to pacify the Iranian people, most of whom were furious over the failure of Tehran's Afghan policy. This fact was not lost on the Taliban, whose senior spokesman Mulla Wakil Ahmad Motawakil pointed out that one section of the Iranian government was in touch with them and wanted a peaceful and negotiated settlement of their disputes while the other was more strident in its criticism of the Taliban and was keen on settling scores through the use of force.

Tehran harbours deep distrust of the Taliban, who are largely Pashtoon and Sunni, and is of the firm belief that they were supported by the US, financed by Saudi Arabia and raised by Pakistan for their strategic objectives in the region, including the encirclement of Iran. Since the installation of the Afghan mujahideen government in Kabul in April 1992, Iran has backed the non-Pashtoon and Shia groups in the bloody power struggle in the war-ravaged country. There have been some contacts between Tehran and the Taliban and the former still maintains consulates in Herat and Jalalabad but the Iranian embassy in Kabul had to be closed down and the consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif is now under Taliban occupation.

Iran's traditionally friendly ties with Pakistan have also hit rock bottom due to Tehran's allegations that Islamabad was backing the Taliban. The Iranians were so furious with Pakistan that their government made it clear Islamabad would be held responsible if anything happened to the Iranian diplomats. "In fact, Pakistan cheated us," says Iranian journalist Vahid Aqili. "On one side Islamabad was talking about mediation and on the other side it was arming and pushing the Taliban to seize Mazar-i-Sharif."

The Nawaz Sharif government also came under some pressure when former prime minister Benazir Bhutto demanded that Pakistan cut off its ties with the Taliban if they refused to release the Iranian diplomats. She also said Pakistan cannot afford to lose Iran for the sake of the Taliban.

Iran, for its part, is also upset about American access to strategic energy sources in Central Asia through Afghanistan. So far Iran has practically been the only outlet of rich energy supplies from the splinter republics of the former Soviet Union. Iranians believe that the US weapons, Saudi money and Pakistani training and logistical support to the Taliban are all part of a well-thought-out scheme to put pressure on Iran.

Iran apart, Central Asian countries are also apprehensive about the escalating tension in and around Afghanistan. Most are worried that the radical brand of Islam practiced by the Taliban may spread to their own Muslim pockets. In addition, the Taliban have turned a blind eye to opium cultivation and its export.

At the moment, the Afghanistan-Iran border is still tense and the Iranian troops remain deployed about 20 miles from the Afghan border. The Taliban, whose spectacular military advance in northern Afghanistan was halted first by the US airstrikes against the terrorist training camps in Khost and subsequently due to the military standoff with Tehran, would like to avoid an armed confrontation with a powerful neighbour like Iran. The massing of troops on the border by Iran has already forced the Taliban to pull out troops from elsewhere and post them on the border, thus easing the pressure on the besieged Northern Alliance.

But a retreat at this point may not be possible. Even foreign diplomats in Tehran are sceptical of any peaceful solution to the crisis. "From what I have heard from officials of Iran, I can foresee military confrontation any day and at any time if Iranian diplomats are not released by the Taliban," a western diplomat says.

Irfan Parviz In Tehran And Rahimullah Yusufzai In Peshawar With Sanjay Suri In London