After Kabul, What?

THE Taliban may have captured Kabul and all of southern and central Afghanistan but political flux still reigns over the war-ravaged country. Military offensives haven’t ceased: the scene of battle has simply shifted north of Kabul, and there are unconfirmed reports of fighting from the north-west too. The Rabbani regime has retreated to its strongholds in areas that the Taliban hasn’t yet reached—but its remnants are still active diplomatically. And desperate dialogues for new strategic alliances—being termed a ‘peace process’ by some—are mired in conflicting ethnic loyalties.

Control over Afghanistan is currently split unequally among a power triangle—the Pakistan-backed Taliban; deposed president Burhanuddin Rabbani, backed by the military might of his fellow-Tajik defence minister Ahmad Shah Masood; and Jumbush-i-Milli Islami leader Gen Abdul Rasheed Dostum, who is of Uzbek stock. On the military front, a new round of fierce fighting has begun north of Kabul as the Taliban tries to annihilate Masood라이브 바카라 forces in their native Panjsher valley, a tough terrain that Masood defended successfully for years against the Soviet forces. It라이브 바카라 not going to be easy for the Taliban, which has control right up to areas abutting the valley. According to reports till October 10, heavy fighting was raging around Panjsher valley and Masood was believed to have repulsed the Taliban offensive. And reports also talk about a Taliban clash with Jumbush-i-Milli forces near Salang Tunnel, a strategic point in Dostum country in the north-west which would clinch the trade routes to Central Asia. No confirmations have come yet.

On the political front, the Taliban can by no means relax. Dostum holds the balance of power. His moves were being carefully watched. Mazar-i-Sharif, his political and military headquarters in the north-west, has become a buzzing focal point for all anti-Taliban forces. Rabbani, for one, swallowed his pride and travelled there to seek an alliance with Dostum. The Iran-backed Shiite leader of Hezb-i-Wahdat, Karim Khalili, was there; so was the pro-Rabbani ex-governor of Herat, Gen Ismail Khan. Ousted premier Gulbuddin Hekmatyar—whose pockets of resistance have long since been overrun by the fellow-Pashtun Taliban—too was expected.

At the same time, Dostum라이브 바카라 spokesman in Pakistan, Gen Mohammad Yousaf, was careful to disclaim suggestions of an anti-Taliban tilt. On October 10, he sought to justify the Mazar-i-Sharif congregation, saying it was an open affair. He insisted that all Afghan groups, including the Taliban, were welcome to join the talks since they were aimed at resolving the grave crisis confronting Afghanistan. He specified that the Jumbush-i-Milli Islami had no dispute with the Taliban and was willing to hold a dialogue with it on all issues. "No fighting has taken place between us and the Taliban. We don’t want to fight our Taliban brothers as they are also Afghans," he maintained.

Senior Taliban leader Mullah Wakil Ahmad echoed the sentiments. "We have not clashed with Dostum라이브 바카라 troops. In fact, we are on good terms with Dostum," he told 바카라 in Kandahar. He also hinted at future talks on all political issues—saying a brother of former president Sibghatullah Mojadeddi and other leaders were expected in Kabul for this.

Amid the disclaimers, the pro-Rabbani Afghan ambassador to India, Khalil Khalili, stated on October 8 in New Delhi that Dostum and Rabbani had decided to join up to check the Taliban march. He said all Afghan embassies were taking orders from Taleqam, the Rabbani regime라이브 바카라 new headquarters in the northern Kahar province. Denouncing the Taliban, he said its perceived links with "foreign elements", chiefly Pakistan라이브 바카라 ISI, had brought together minority ethnic groups in Afghanistan against the common foe.

CORROBORATING this version were reports that Dostum is under tremendous pressure from Russia, other CIS members and Iran to patch up with the Rabbani-Masood axis and join forces to stop the Taliban from marching into the north. Under the given circumstances, the Taliban is taking a realistic view of things. Even if it manages to capture Panjsher and chase away Masood further to his remaining strongholds in the north-east, it would still have to contend with Dostum.

So, it라이브 바카라 maintaining a front of neutrality vis-a-vis Dostum. But with the student militia placed in a position of strategic superiority, it라이브 바카라 bargaining hard. The terms for a ceasefire are clear: the Rabbani-Masood-Hekmatyar forces must lay down arms to show their peaceful intentions. Only then would the attacks on remaining bases be halted.

This fragile situation is what bothers the ex-Soviet republics to the north of Afghanistan. The October 4 CIS summit at Almaty expressed deep concern over the developments in Kabul, and warned of an "adequate response", should the war get any nearer their southern borders. The "flame of war", it said, "poses a direct threat to (the CIS states’) national security interests...and destabilises the regional and international situation." Uzbekistan President Islam Karimov, who shares his ethnicity with Dostum, went a step further and called for support to Dostum to help him fight the Taliban. A statement issued by the National Security Council of Uzbekistan referred to the brutal public execution of former president Najibullah and said the "actions of Talibs are beyond the limits of civilised methods of political struggle." It also invoked human rights, attacking the Taliban for prohibiting women from going out and closing down their schools.

Pakistan, meanwhile, is trying hard to fob off allegations of partiality in the Afghan power struggle. A delegation to Central Asia—headed by Premier Benazir Bhutto라이브 바카라 adviser, Ijlal Haider Zaidi—was hard put to convince the leaders of Uzbekistan, Tajik-istan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan that Islamabad wasn’t backing the Taliban. President Farooq Ahmed Leghari is himself visiting the Central Asian republics next week in a mission to allay such fears.

On yet another front, Iran라이브 바카라 deputy foreign minister Allauddin Broujerdi—who is Tehran라이브 바카라 pointsman on Afghanistan, with a special C-130 aircraft at his disposal to fly him all over the war-ravaged nation—also joined the Mazar-i-Sharif congregation in a bid to coax Dostum into a grand anti-Taliban alliance. In the past, Broujerdi has played a crucial role in bringing Rabbani and Hekmatyar together and tried his level best, albeit in vain, to woo Dostum and Karim Khalili into the Rabbani government라이브 바카라 fold. Tehran and the Taliban are already well into the first bout of mutual recrimination. First, Imam Khamanei accused the Taliban of bringing Islam into disrepute by its controversial actions. In response, the Iranian charge d’affaires in Kabul got a dressing down. Khamanei and other Iranian leaders question the Taliban version of Islam and raise doubts about its origins and patrons. The Iranian press alleges that the ‘student movement’ was conceived and funded by the Saudis and Americans and received logistical backing from Pakistan. Islamabad has consistently denied this, but what critics point to is the manner in which a ragtag force emerged from nowhere and defeated established mujahideen groups in two years flat. The Taliban, on its part, attributes the astonishing successes to God라이브 바카라 blessings and reiterates its belief that all opponents would be vanquished in due course of time. Taliban leaders often quote Mullah Moha-mmad Umar, their Amirul Momineen (commander of the faithful) who predicted the fall of Herat and Kabul, to emphasise that such miracles can only happen if Allah is pleased with one라이브 바카라 actions.

In strategic terms, the Taliban is sitting pretty with 70 per cent of Afghanistan. But image-wise, it has a stiff battle ahead. The strict code for women has provoked an almost universal outcry. Warnings are emanating from all quarters—from the UN to the US and from aid agencies to NGOs—that foreign aid to Afghanistan may dry up if these policies continue. These sharp reactions have come in the wake of a series of actions that shocked the world: the public hanging of Najibullah and younger brother Ahmadzai; a blanket fiat against working women; and the closure of all girls schools. Now, faced with the prospect of being shunned on the global stage, the Taliban is beginning to present a more moderate face. Kabul라이브 바카라 new deputy foreign minister Sher Mohammad Stanaksai, a 37-year-old Kabul University graduate and one of the few English-speakers among the Taliban leadership, gave assurances last week that the bans against working women and girls’ schools would soon be relaxed. He also tried to remove American, western Europe and Arab apprehensions by stressing that the Taliban would neither export fundamentalism nor support terrorism.

Initially, the Taliban talked tough with Dostum—acting foreign minister Mullah Mohammad Ghaus even warned him against taking foreign help. His message was clear: cooperate, or face an attack. Now, the accent has changed. For, the Taliban fears that if it pushes Dostum too hard, he would be forced right into the rival camp. And that may well split Afghanistan again between a Pashtun Taliban and an anti-Pashtun alliance of Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras. Dostum, whose Islamic credentials are now accepted by nearly all Afghan groups after having been derided earlier as a communist, is playing his cards cautiously. He surely wants recognition from the Taliban and more autonomy for northern Afghanistan and its ethnic and sectarian minorities. In case the Taliban refuses to play ball, he has the option of joining the proposed anti-Taliban alliance, which won’t augur well for Afghan unity.