Americans Vote For Status Quo

BUOYED by a strong economy, President Bill Clinton breezed into a second term last week, crushing Republican Bob Dole, expanding his share of the popular vote over 1992, and becoming the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson and Franklin D. Roosevelt to be returned to office. Clinton crafted a decisive victory by dominating Dole in all regions except the South and parts of the Mid-West.

Clinton’s victory is one of the most incredible come-from-behind stories of American politics. Scorned for his liberal excesses in 1993, humiliated by a Republican sweep in 1994, forced to defend his own political relevance in 1995, plagued by a string of ethical investigations throughout his four years, he still managed to win. It is an astounding achievement, especially for one so mired in scandal. The fact that more than half of those who voted for him said they doubted his trustworthiness makes his victory even more remarkable.

Nevertheless, Clinton’s mandate is somewhat uncertain. Although his share of the electoral vote is handsome (Clinton 379 electoral votes, Dole 159, Ross Perot 0), he received only 49 per cent of the popular vote (compared to 41 per cent for Dole, 8 per cent for Perot, and the balance 2 per cent for small party candidates). Although 49 per cent is an improvement on the 43 per cent Clinton received in 1992, it was not the 50 per cent he was craving for and which seemed within his grasp until two weeks ago.

Voter polls conducted by ABC, NBC, Fox, CNN, and the Associated Press show that just as the sour economy helped catapult Clinton to victory four years ago, this year he succeeded in presenting himself as presiding over an economic revival.

At 50, Clinton is the youngest president ever to win re-election. He spoke to cheering crowds at a victory celebration on the steps of the Old State House in Little Rock, Arkansas: "Just four years from now, we will enter a new century of great challenge and unlimited possibility. Now we’ve got a bridge to build and I’m ready if you are." Dole’s concession speech ended a political career that began 43 years ago. Said the former Kansas senator rather poignantly: "Tomorrow will be the first time in my life I won’t have anything to do." Reform candidate Perot received less than half his 1992 vote but enough to maintain his party’s funding in the 2000 election. "We are going to have to stand at the gate and keep the pressure on," he said.

Besides the economy, four other factors worked for Clinton—the fact that he had no Democrat challenge and did not have to fight a long-drawn-out primary battle as Dole did; ample funds because he started fund-raising as early as last year; moving to the middle of the political spectrum by coopting Republican issues, the demonisation of Newt Gingrich, who personified the worst excesses of the 1994 Republican Revolution; and finally, a lacklustre opponent in Dole, who couldn’t seem to get anything right.

Women gave President Clinton his biggest boost by voting overwhelmingly to send him back to the White House. He got 55 per cent of the women’s vote, with Dole getting 37 per cent. The gender gap crossed all age and racial lines, and included ever y income level except the very wealthy. Black and Hispanic women favoured the president by large margins. Clinton also won the vote of the affluent suburban women or "soccer moms" who were undecided. Abortion was not the only issue that gave Clinton an edge with women voters. They felt he was more interested in the issues they cared about such as family leave, care for the elderly, social security, increase in the minimum wage, proposals to help families pay for education and health care, and gun control.

In the final days of the campaign, Republican leaders appealed, in speeches and in television commercials, for mass ticket-splitting, arguing that if Clinton won the White House, it would be even more important to elect a Republican House and Senate to prevent the president from becoming too dominating. That appeal seems to have worked. The GOP has retained control of the Senate (55 to 45) and will also hold the House (229 to 207).

Dole’s furious closing 96-hour onslaught against the ethics of the White House, apparently had an impact, if not enough to turn the election around. The Clinton campaign, which had masterfully controlled the political news agenda for several months, lost the battle just as Clinton launched his closing drive. The rush of disclosures about foreign contributions to the Democrat campaign put Clinton on the defensive and reopened questions about the administration’s ethical standards, an issue flogged by Dole from the beginning.

The fact that the Democrats did not win Congress does not augur well for the Clintons. The various ethics investigations against him and his wife are likely to be taken up with renewed vigour. Added to the Independent Counsel on Whitewater are congressional investigations into Whitewater, the travel office dismissals, and the gathering of FBI files on prominent Republicans. The next investigation is likely to be into the Democratic Party’s fund-raising relationships with foreign donors, which targets the president’s close ties to specific donors. There are GOP extremists in Congress who vow Clinton will not complete his term at the White House and that he will be impeached or his wife indicted.

The larger question, unanswered in the voting, was what kind of president would Clinton be in his second term? Would he be the liberal of his first two years or the moderate of the last two years? It is expected that the agenda for the next four years will be largely determined by how he interfaces with a Republican-led House and Senate, which may have moved even further to the right. Clinton will have to find a way to use Republicans not only as an electoral foil, as he did in the second half of his first term, but also, if he wants to leave a legislative record, as genuine partners in compromise.

Said NBCTV ’s Tim Russert: "Neither party has won a mandate. The voters are saying that they want both parties to work together to find common ground, to govern from the middle, and to end partisanship. The electorate is saying they are disposed towards the status quo, which is why they voted in a divided government." White House sources say Clinton is thinking of his place in history. He wants to leave a legacy—whether it is in Medicare or social security reform or in deficit reduction. One of his main contributions is likely to be his reshaping of the old New Deal coalition of liberals and labour into a new alliance of centrists.

Says historian Douglas Brinkley: "We have rarely seen a politician as astute as him. He has a chance for a fresh start and his capacity for adjustment has repeatedly helped him turn weaknesses into strengths and setbacks into progress. He has the potential for going down as a truly great president." According to a senior domestic policy adviser at the White House, the President’s agenda in a second term is very clear. "He has to finish the job of balancing the budget, reform education, expand college opportunity, move people from welfare to work, and help families get ready for the 21st century by making sure they have job skills and access to quality health care. " Clinton is expected to name one or two prominent Republicans to major cabinet posts. Likely candidates are Sen. Dick Lugar of Indiana, former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Gen. Colin Powell; and former senators Bill Cohen and Warren Rudman. There is also talk that Dole may be appointed to head a bipartisan blue ribbon commission on Medicare.

THE following members are expected to resign shortly—Secretary of State Warren Christopher, Defence Secretary William Perry, Energy Secretary Hazel O’Leary, and Commerce Secretary Mickey Kantor. Four likely candidates are being suggested for Christopher’s job—UN Ambassador Madeleine Albright, Powell, former senator Sam Nunn of Georgia, and Sen. George Mitchell (former Majority Leader). CIA Chief John Deutch may get Perry’s post.

Vice-President Al Gore, who has made no secret of his presidential aspirations in 2000, is likely to be thrust into a more high profile role in a second Clinton administration. Gore could well be torn between wanting Clinton to leave a strong record for him to run on and wanting the president to avoid getting into policy compromises with Congress that could complicate Gore’s efforts to win Democratic nomination.

Hillary Clinton’s role in a second term remains uncertain. She is at the centre of several investigations and no one at the White House expects her to take a formal policy role. However, the president has suggested she may get involved in implementing welfare overhaul. Because of House Speaker Gingrich’s diminished stature, the mantle of leadership on Capitol Hill is likely to fall on Sen. Trent Lott, Majority leader.

Foreign Policy: Issues of foreign policy barely featured in the campaign. Yet there are some big decisions to be taken, and the US will have to take the lead. Europe may want to play a larger part in its own defence, may seek a role in West Asia, but without Washington’s backing none of these will work.

Although poll evidence shows that Americans have a declining interest in foreign policy, non-Americans want the US to remain internationally engaged and to maintain an active world presence. Clinton has been an uncertain leader and his foreign policy has often been opportunist. But, on the whole, the world would rather have him than someone from the Republican Right, with its isolationist tendencies.

The world has been waiting impatiently, through a whole year of campaigning for the US administration to act on a range of urgent foreign policy tasks—pushing the West Asia peace process forward, restoring stability in the Gulf and peace in Afghanistan, consolidating peace in Bosnia and defusing wars in Africa. Analysts criticise Clinton’s first term for its hesitancy and unwillingness to take foreign policy initiatives without the outcome being guaranteed in advance.

Secretary of State Christopher’s replacement will mean changes in the State Department team and its policy orientation. "Policy reassessment for the Clinton administration have usually involved selecting the worst of the new ideas, and ended up with the decision not to take any initiative or do anything new for fear of making a mistake," said a foreign policy critic, adding that instead of being ready at all times to shoulder its responsibilities of post-Cold War global leadership, the administration has often shown a tendency to hesitate, procrastinate, and evade demands that no other international leadership can meet. "On the other hand, we have seen it exerting great efforts over battles of secondary importance, such as its bid to remove the United Nations Secretary-General," he said.

For much of his first term, Clinton seemed to shy away from foreign policy, in part because he had been elected on so big a domestic agenda. But he has increasingly come to feel more comfortable on the world stage, aides say. Though his efforts to intercede in places like Northern Ireland, Bosnia and West Asia have so far produced mixed results, his advisers expect him to intensify바카라 웹사이트

his efforts. Expanding NATO to include the former Eastern European countries will also be at the top of his foreign policy programme. Priorities in Asia will include China, Taiwan and North Korea, say advisers. But South Asia is not considered a priority. And India lost a friend when Republican Sen. Pressler was defeated. He was a zealous watchdog on non-proliferation and author of the famous Pressler Amendment which said a presidential certification was required that Pakistan did not possess a nuclear device while handing out military aid to the country.

Voter Turnout: The voter turnout in presidential elections has dropped steadily since 1960 to a historic low of about 50 per cent in 1988. An upturn to 55 per cent in 1992 was reversed this year with the voter turnout averaging 49 per cent, the lowest since 1924. "Turnout in the US is lower than any place in the world where you have reliable numbers," says Raymond Wolfinger, a voter-turnout expert at the University of California, Berkeley.

The low US turnout can be attributed to several factors, among them the complicated voter registration system, the high mobility of Americans, and a lack of voter interest. More established democracies make it easy to register to vote, resulting in high levels of registration. In the US, where registration is difficult, only about 70 per cent of those with the right to vote actually register. On his second term, the domestic front appears obstacle-ridden. But for now, all eyes are turned on Clinton as he prepares to take America to the 21st century.