Arc Of Instability

WHEN Dago Tshering, Bhutan's home minister, addressed the National Assembly recently, he confirmed the worst fears of its 147 members. Yes, India's ULFA and Bodo militants had set up camps in the southern districts and posed a real threat to Bhutan's sovereignty. "The militants have established camps in (our) forests close to their villages in Assam," said Tshering. "It's not possible for (our) limited security troops to cordon the entire area."

Tshering was alluding to the arc of instability between Phuntsoling and Samdrup Jongkhar in southern Bhutan along a 600-km stretch of its border with West Bengal and Assam. This has become a hot zone for ULFA and Bodo militants after Bangladesh disbanded some 23 of their camps last year. Now transit camps along this soft border link up rebel headquarters in Bhutan with their field units in Assam, say latest IB reports.

Several National Assembly representatives reported that Indian rebels move freely in Bhutan. Pemagatshel's representative said ULFA and Bodo rebels "often come in groups of 15 to 20 people" to the district. According to deputy minister for agriculture Khandu Wangchuk, patrol teams "often encountered" groups of "well armed" militants in the forests. The Shemgang representative voiced a graver concern: "If such illegal entries continue, it could affect our security and harm relations with India."

The bad tidings couldn't have come at a worse time. Bhutan's reputation as a peaceful kingdom took a beating after allegedly evicted Nepali settlers formed hit squads and attacked villages. More than 100 people, including police officials and a district administrator, have been killed in the clashes which the royal government calls an unfair war between armed ngolops (aliens) and helpless locals. Now incursions by insurgents waging war against India is giving the government the jitters.

Part of the blame is possibly Bhutan's for not anticipating the turn of events when Bodo militants began trooping to the southern districts in the early '90s after the Indian Army's cleansing operations in Assam. The ULFA militants began entering Bhutan in 1992. Now, the Border Security Force has been deployed on the Indian side, curfew imposed and Section 144, prohibiting any unlawful assembly, clamped in the area. The level of rebel buildup inside Bhutan is ominously high. Latest army intelligence reports say the ULFA, the National Democratic Front of Bodoland and Bodoland Liberation Tiger Force have set up 33 camps. The camps shelter anything between 15 to 500 militants. ULFA's commander-in-chief Paresh Barua is reported to be hiding in the kingdom. The Royal Bhutanese Army with a single division of some 30,000 soldiers is not up to the task of pushing them back.

Life in the camps is tough. Naba Thakuria, a Guwahati-based journalist who visited some ULFA camps in Bhutan recently, found the rebels surviving on rice and pulses and battling malaria. "But the rebels seemed determined to fight the hostile terrain," says Thakuria. Agrees a senior army officer: "Bhutan is the last major base for the ULFA. They will fight to retain it." The rebels pose problems which could disrupt the kingdom's social fabric. For one, there are reports about militants keeping villagers happy by paying high prices for food. The representative from the business community told the National Assembly: "Even if militants pay Nu 500 (Rs 500) for one chicken, people must not sell." The Bhutanese also fear that Indian militants could tie up with the ngolops and foment trouble. "There is every possibility of them forming an alliance with anti-nationals and causing greater problems for us," said the representative from Trashiyangtsi.

Though the Indian government is coaxing Bhutan to allow the army to flush out militants, the royal government isn't too keen. One reason could be India's inability to extradite Bhutanese dissident leader Rongthong Kinley Dorji, who is now under detention in a Delhi-based beggar home. (Dorji, a businessman from East Bhutan, is charged with consorting with the Lhotsampas—southern Bhutanese of Nepali origin—and forming a five-party opposition grouping in exile.) The other reason could be the sheer fear of reprisals: ULFA's Barua reportedly called up authorities in Thimpu, and threatened to blow up the royal palace if the king allowed the Indian Army in.

Instead of allowing the Indian Army, Bhutan wants India to train a special force to take on the rebels. "Bhutan doesn't want to be seen as India's backyard," says South Asia analyst Subir Bhaumik. This is one of the biggest challenges facing Jigme Singye Wangchuk, the 41-year-old monarch. Phub Zam, owner of a Phuntsoling trading company, sums it up: "The Indo-Bhutan border was so quiet. Now we're scared."