Back To The Dark Ages

KABUL has reverted to scenes of politico-military violence that existed over 100 years ago. Former president Najibullah was dragged out of the UN compound, tied to a jeep, brought to Ariana Square and hanged in public on the morning of September 27. The scene was reminiscent of the violence which erupted around Kabul in 1842 when the British withdrew under humiliating circumstances brought about by Akbar Khan, the fanatical son of Dost Mohammad. Najib라이브 바카라 killing signifies the end of any prospect for a conciliatory solution to Afghan tensions in the foreseeable future. His being kept alive and safe by the successive Mujahedeen governments, since his fall in April 1992, had indicated that the leadership of those governments was willing to come to terms with the political elements that dominated Afghanistan during the Russian period. Najibullah, in any case, had become a marginally credible national figure because of the success he had achieved in managing Afghanistan for nearly three years after the withdrawal of the erstwhile Soviet Union in 1989. He was perhaps the card held in reserve to influence the last hand in the violent Afghan poker game.

His murder signifies the consolidation of antagonisms in Afghan politics; between Pushtoons and non-Pushtoons, political moderates and political extremists, Shias and Sunnis, the practical and the dogmatic Islamic groups.

The fact that the Taliban has captured Kabul and is in control of Kandahar will not end military violence in the country. There are other geo-strategic points in Afghanistan. Namely, Herat, Mazare Sharif, Badakshan and Faizabad and the Panjsheer valley where forces opposed to Taliban can regroup and fight back. There are no confirmed or reliable reports about the location or inclination of national military figures such as General Dostum and Ahmad Shah Mas-ood. Given the volatile nature of Afghanistan라이브 바카라 political and military equations and recurrent patterns of shifting alliances which have influenced political developments, there is no guarantee that Taliban라이브 바카라 capturing Kabul and being in control of the Jalalabad-Kabul, Gazni-Kandahar axis will result in their gaining territorial control and stabilising the whole of Afghanistan.

Taliban is a force created by Pakistan. There are recurrent reports that retired Pakistani Army personnel command and control this group. It was created and launched against Mujahedeen governments of Kabul because they would not toe the Pakistani line. Taliban is armed by the Pakistanis, backed up by finances from Saudi Arabia. Their capturing the important sectors of southern Afghanistan is a temporary Pakistani victory against the more autonomous Afghan nationalistic forces. With it, Pakistan for the time being gains an upper hand over Iran in Afghan politics.

Mullah Muhammed Omar, chief of the Taliban, has appointed a six-member temporary government and announced that areas under his control will be ruled under the strictest Islamic laws—in fact Sunni laws. Taliban aims at establishing a Sunni Pushtoon dominated polity. This is bound to generate opposition from Iran and Tajikistan because of the concern of these countries about Shia Afghans, Tajiks, Hazaras and other ethnic groups which have links with Iran and Central Asian republics. Military assistance may flow from these countries to Afghan groups opposing the Taliban. The US is caught on the horns of a dilemma. While Pakistan is an ally and its protege, the Taliban is an anarchic Islamic group which the US will not be able to stomach in the long run. Russia and China, facing Islamic fissiparous tendencies in their respective countries, will view Taliban라이브 바카라 victory and fanatical violence with concern and reservations. Taliban라이브 바카라 gaining control over southern Afghanistan can permanently bifurcate Afghanistan into two countries: one belonging to the Pushtoons, south of the Helmand and Amu-Dara Basins; and the other to the north, belonging to non-Pushtoon Afghans. A Pushtoon geopolitical entity resulting from a bifurcated Afghanistan will pose a serious separatist challenge for Pakistan with the North West Frontier Province gravitating towards such a country.

These developments create distances between India and Afghanistan and also set up hurdles in our future contacts in Central Asia. India라이브 바카라 relations with Afghanistan will stand suspended for the time being. There can be no truck with the political orientations of Taliban.

Taliban라이브 바카라 victory could be a costly proposition for Pakistan in the long run. The attitudes of Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, China, Russia and the United States to the developing situation merit assiduous monitoring. The United Nations and its peacekeeping efforts now stand totally marginalised. Afghanistan now faces a higher state of ferment—its future lost in foggy uncertainties.바카라 웹사이트

(The author was the Ambassador to Afghanistan from 1982 to 1985)