Benazir At Break-point

THREE years into her five-year term, Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto is surrounded by a sea of trouble. Even a few months ago, she seemed fairly comfortably ensconced . Now she is fighting on many fronts—the Opposition parties have decided to come out on the streets, the judiciary is in an aggressive mood, the business and industrial community is up in arms. The reasons: utter misgovernance, allegations of rampant corruption, sectarian violence. And the economy is in such a shambles that in August the International Monetary Fund told a delegation that was to sanction the next tranche of loan to Pakistan to defer its visit.

Choosing this time, President Farooq Ahmed Khan Leghari brightened Opposition hopes when he recently told a local English daily that he can take recourse to the infamous Eighth Amendment, which empowers the President to sack an elected government, in national interest. Not that the Opposition—for a long time hoping that Leghari will one day send Benazir packing—was overjoyed. For, Leghari ruled out a caretaker government to oversee mid-term polls, one of its key demands.

The scandal relating to the multi-million pound mansion in Surrey, England, allegedly bought by Benazir and her husband Asif Zardari, couldn't have come at a worse time for the ruling couple. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), heading an informal alliance of 14 political and religious groups, has let loose a full-blown agitation to oust the government by October. Mushahid Hussain, PML-N information secretary, cites Leghari's snub—he sent back an ordinance recently—and predicts doom for the Benazir regime before the year is out.

Those who know Leghari, though, feel he will never turn against the Pakistan People's Party chief. Says a party leader: "He owes everything to her. She made him the President. They've been together for so long in the PPP. He has now resigned, but his son is a PPP leader and his cousins have been elected on party ticket. Leghari's personality is such that he could differ with Benazir on issues, but he wouldn't betray her." This, perhaps, is the straw she is clutching at.

The Opposition campaign received a boost after the 1996-97 Budget, presented in June, imposed taxes running into lakhs of rupees. The business community was thrown into a tailspin and nationwide strikes ensued, hurting the already fragile economy.

The Opposition is not without its fault lines. Many politicians now agitating with the PML-N don't want to see its chief Nawaz Sharif back as prime minister. The all-powerful establishment, whose creature he was, does not regard him as reliable because of his brush with the army when he was sacked in 1993. His outspoken remarks about Pakistan's nuclear bomb too continue to haunt Sharif.

Besides, given that the twin charges of corruption and incompetence were flung about during his rule too, not many see him as the ideal alternative at the moment. In fact, Benazir has herself remarked that having Nawaz Sharif as a rival suits her fine. "As long as he is there at the top of the Opposition, we are safe," says a federal minister.

Sharif's main weakness is he fears anybody around him who could eventually overshadow him. He likes to align with smaller groups and religious parties with little electoral support who can be relied upon to play a subservient role. These include the Awami National Party, whose base is in the North West Frontier Province, and Altaf Hussain's Mohajir Qaumi Movement, restricted to Sindh's urban areas.

Of late he has also tried to mend fences with Jamaat-i-Islami chief Qazi Hussain Ahmed, who had played a key role in ousting Sharif three years ago. Qazi, who is now out to dislodge Benazir and whose rallies are attended by Sharif, is widely thought to be propped up by "invisible" forces—a reference to the military, known for its kingmaker role.

Benazir has to shoulder much of the onus for the soup she is in. She is more threatened by the lack of governance than any political upheaval. Price hikes, unemployment, law and order and blatant corruption has badly tarnished her image.

Everyday life continues to get difficult. Experts say Pakistan's economy is heading for a collapse. Revenue collection has fallen way below targets and the government is in dire need of funds. So much so that proceeds from privatisation of banks and industries had to be used to meet government expenditure. Shamsuddin Tariq, IMF's local chief, said on record that there was no chance of any further assistance until its team arrives and reviews the economy. So when the IMF called off the August visit by its team, it effectively held back an expected $318 million aid package.

But PPP leaders try to dispel this atmosphere of gloom by saying things would improve in 1997. Others forecast it as election year. Says Mushahid: "The government is on the run and Benazir is putting up false fronts to divert attention." But frequent snap polls? He thinks the pattern would continue till the turn of the century. "Only then can we hope to have an Assembly that lasts its term."

바카라 웹사이트Mushahid points out that cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan also wants to see Benazir out, and this could supplement Sharif's efforts. But his prediction of a happy confluence—Leghari, the PML-N and others mutually moving towards a caretaker setup—seems a little farfetched at this stage. Benazir might be losing her grip on the administration but she still commands a majority in the House.

And if the President remains on her side, there is little hope of change. Primarily because the army is still staying aloof, at least ostensibly. There are many who ascribe to it a more activist role, but Mush-ahid concedes the army is now only interested in defence affairs. Here, the proposed purchase of 32 advanced Mirage-2000 aircraft for the air force at an astronomical $4 billion has become a point of dispute. The army wants the deal cancelled. Charges of a massive commission are flying thick and fast. Newsreports claim the commission amount could be as high as $200 million.

With local government elections set for later this year and most of the PML-N dominated Senate seats falling vacant next March, the Opposition knows this could be harvest season. For Benazir, a lot depends on whether she can stand up to the pressure and take drastic confidence-restoring steps. Else, the doomsayers could prove right.

Buffeted on all sides, Benazir has chosen to take on the judiciary. The confrontation began with the Supreme Court's March 20 verdict, which trimmed the government's role in the appointment and transfer of judges. Most of these powers were transferred to the courts—and it was made mandatory for the government to seek the judiciary's consent in all such matters. Benazir perceived a threat to her powers and launched a tirade against the Supreme Court. It filed a review petition before the Supreme Court but abruptly withdrew it, calling for the reconstitution of the bench hearing the case, making it clear that it had no confidence in the bench headed by Chief Justice Sajjad Ali Shah, a judge handpicked by her.

The Opposition promptly took the cue—the government was ainted as having no respect for the judiciary. They believe a Chief Justice hostile to the government will be helpful if they move a reference against the Prime Minister and her husband on corruption charges. They hope the duo may even be disqualified from Parliament. That, for the Opposition, would be a sweatless coup.