Benazir's Toughest Hour

Murtaza lived and died confirming the aphorism, "He who sows the wild wind reapsthe whirlwind." Leaving aside the continuing antagonisms and tragedies affecting thefirst political family of Pakistan, this latest assassination inevitably compounds theferment in Pakistani politics. First the implications for Benazir herself. The Bhuttofamily’s simmering conflicts and antagonisms have now culminated in a vertical splitin the family. The last five years of Benazir’s alienation from her mother Nusrat,her sister Sanam and Murtaza have reached a climax.

When Murtaza returned to Pakistan after years of exile, he laid claim to Zulfikar AliBhutto’s heritage of leadership of the Pakistan People’s Party ( PPP ). Hismother supported his claims from 1993 onwards. Benazir’s reaction was surgicallyfirm, she removed her mother from the co- chairmanship of the party assuming sole control,and she neutralised Murtaza by arguing that his joining mainstream politics would bepossible only after various legal cases and criminal charges against him are resolved.

Their fight had both personal and political dimensions which have now culminated inMurtaza’s violent demise. Nusrat Bhutto’s emotional and political resentmentswill now cross the thresholds of her tolerance about Benazir remaining party president andprime minister.

The motivations for this assassination are not clear, yet there is every likelihood ofBenazir’s husband Asif Zardari being accused of engineering the violence. The hold ofthe family on the party and Pakistani politics will now be seriously challenged.

The unity of the PPP itself is likely to be affected, with some members opposed toBenazir— especially Asif Zardari— threatening to split the party in anger andbitterness resulting from the murder of Murtaza. This in turn can affect both the qualityand range of cadre and mass support for Benazir’s leadership. She faces a seriouspolitical predicament vis- a- vis the controversies in which she is already enmeshed. Overthe last year she has antagonised the Mohajirs, she has taken on the judiciary by tryingto reduce its authority, she has used strong- arm tactics against all the oppositionparties.

It would be natural for the opposition to take full advantage of Murtaza’sassassination to embarrass and destabilise Benazir. They are bound to exploit theintriguing events attendant to the reported police encounter resulting in this murder.

It would be relevant to speculate whether Murtaza had reverted back to his terroristtactics to enter the mainstream of Pakistani politics, thereby inviting drastic actionagainst him-self. One could also ruminate whether the Pakistani army and intelligenceestablishment wanted to remove Benazir and Zardari from power and opted for the route ofMurtaza’s assassination to achieve their objective. President Leghari and Army ChiefJahangir Karamat will be the most decisive influences on Pakistani politics in the comingdays.

One thing is clear. Murtaza’s murder must make Benazir look at the immediatefuture with dim presage.