Bill's Wagon Heads East

AFTER a long hiatus, Indo-US relations are back on track. Basking in the afterglow of the Gujral-Clinton summit in New York last month, US Administration officials are visibly upbeat about ties with India. Looking forward to a spate of high-level visits to India scheduled over the next few months, a senior State Department source confirmed that preparations on agendas and briefing materials were in full swing.

Indeed, I.K. Gujral's successful parleys with Bill Clinton have provided a much needed impetus. "In the wake of the meetings in New York, we are taking stock of what was said and are trying to chart the agendas," said the source. However, he cautioned that the final agendas and issues to be discussed "would take a while yet to be determined."

Clinton's under-secretary of state for political affairs, Thomas Pickering—number three in the State Department—will kick-start the visits to India in mid-October. "Pickering will discuss regional and global security issues in broad terms. We hope his visit will evolve into a high-level security dialogue between India and ourselves," said the State Department source. He added that Pickering would not only take up nuclear proliferation but would also discuss regional issues such as India's relations with China and Pakistan. He confirmed that last month in New York, Pickering and Indian foreign secretary K. Raghunath had talked about "the nature of things he would like to discuss when he comes to India".

Pickering's trip will be followed by a visit of the US health and human services (HHS) secretary, Donna Shalala, in early November. Shalala's office would not say what her agenda was except that it would be "fact-finding and to inform herself about health services in India".

But what is occupying the State Department more than anything else right now is the forthcoming visit of secretary of state Madeleine Albright, possibly in November. "We are putting the finishing touches on a schedule right at this moment but it is far from done," confirmed the source. "She is committed to going to India. At this moment I don't know how many days she is planning to stay. The number of days will have a major impact on what she does. Albright will be dealing with a broad array of issues. As you know, no US foreign secretary has been out there (in South Asia) for nearly 15 years. The region has been neglected for a long time and we want to send a signal that we are determined to give it a higher priority and a lot of thought."

바카라 웹사이트However, the State Department official noted that Albright would not be introducing any new or contentious issues: "She doesn't have to do any heavy lifting. We want her to pick up themes raised by the others. She is not advancing the trip for the president but previewing it."

Albright's visit will be followed by that of commerce secretary William Daley. While Daley's trip is not expected to be as high-profile as that of the late Ron Brown in 1996, it is nevertheless likely to include the signing/launching of some big business deals and announcements of new US investments. Daley is likely to be accompanied by a select group of CEOs representing middle and top tier American companies. Again, the administration is being extra careful to ensure that the group of CEOs is kept small in the wake of criticism that the business executives who accompanied Brown on his trips had contributed considerable sums of money to the Democratic Party. As an official from Daley's office told 바카라: "I fully expect several MOUs to be signed and one or two big deals. I cannot say what will be discussed right now. The US embassy in India is working on the detailed agenda."

바카라 웹사이트In early 1998, the under-secretary of state for economic affairs will head for the subcontinent. Among other things, the under-secretary will attend a meeting of the Joint Economic Sub-Commission in New Delhi. Under-secretary Tim Wirth is also expected to make a visit to India early next year. Wirth, who is working on environmental issues like global warming and climate change, will be looking for Indian support at the forthcoming Kyodo summit on climate change.

Asked about the sudden focus by the US on India after so many years of neglect, the State Department official said: "We feel India is an important regional power and an Asian power and that we ought to have a more normal sharing of views with India as we do with other countries in Europe."But why India now? "We realise that our relationship has not been what it should be. We have neglected South Asia for too many years. Our mutual interests are not served by being prickly on both sides," he responded, in an apparent reference to the ups and downs of the last three years, many of them caused by unnecessarily provocative statements emanating from the South Asia Bureau.

He confirmed that all the visiting US officials would be going to both India and Pakistan. "It is unfortunate that we have to do this pairing each time but we don't want to end up further behind by neglecting anyone," he explained. Whether Albright would go to a third country such as Bangladesh or Sri Lanka has not yet been decided and will be determined by how much time she has at her disposal.

Asked whether Albright would discuss India's bid for permanent membership of the UN Security Council, the source replied: "We have a strong interest in international support for what we call our framework for reform and would certainly want to enlist India's support for this. Having said that, I am sure India will press us to support their bid, but we are hesitant to get involved in making these decisions. It is up to the regional groupings in Asia, Africa and Latin America to decide this." Significantly, he said Washington was not forging any linkage between New Delhi's stand on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and US support for its Security Council membership.

Regarding Clinton's visit to India in February, the official chuckled that it was impossible to get the White House's attention at this early stage. "While the president is very enthusiastic about going to India, it is too early to say what will be discussed. Once Albright's visit is over, we will follow up with Clinton's." But he agreed that the economic relationship was likely to be high up on the agenda: "The president is expected to ask New Delhi to accelerate economic reforms and to remove restrictions on sectors such as insurance. Both the president and Daley will probably talk about problem areas such as intellectual property rights and copyright infringement." Observers say disarmament issues are also going to figure prominently during his visit.

Interestingly, analysts warn that too much must not be made of the impressive list of officials visiting India. Says Stephen Cohen, political science professor and head of the Arms Control Programme at the University of Illinois: "The visits are a useful start. But you can't get rid of 20 years of suspicion that quickly. The Americans need to figure out where India fits in. India has never been a formal ally. It is not a NATO country. Nor is it a hostile country or a rogue state. Yet it often votes against the US at the United Nations. It had a de facto alliance with the Soviets for many years and many in the administration remain suspicious of India."

바카라 웹사이트Cohen adds that as far as India is concerned, an important issue would be the subject of technology transfers which have got bogged down in the US because of "no guidance from the top. In Washington, they just say no to India without really focusing on it and this has caused a good deal of bitterness. Some sort of mechanism will need to be set up to address this issue." But the very fact that dialogue has been initiated on various fronts is enough reason for optimism.