Both Red And Green

INDIA'S bad guy image, acquired after the BJP-led government shocked the world with a series of nuclear tests last May, is now showing signs of changing. With the fall of the Helmut Kohl government, Germany's mixed feelings about the new nuclear nation have crystallised in a policy based on dualism.

For the new coalition government of Social Democrat Gerhard Schroeder, Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee's open attitude at the UN General Assembly towards the CTBT is likely to reinforce India's good guy image.

And the image issue is crucial. Not only because India is striving to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council, but also because Germany is India's largest trading partner in Europe. In 1995, 1996 and 1997, Germany ranked second, next to the US and ahead of Britain, in terms of approved collaborations with Indian companies. Last year, trade between India and Germany was a solid 8.6 billion marks—Indian exports constituted 4.15 billion marks and imports from Germany 4.45 billion marks.

According to an analysis by the Indian Embassy in Bonn, "there is considerable potential to increase the volume of trade. India ranks seventh among Asian countries exporting to Germany, after Japan, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Japan and China accounted for 51.4 per cent of total exports from Asia to Germany in 1996."

바카라 웹사이트"Renewed dynamism on the economic lane can boost ties between India and Germany on the whole," says a source close to Chancellor-designate Schroeder, who, despite a Social Democratic background, is known for his ease and pragmatism in dealing with corporate chiefs. In the 16 years that Kohl reigned, Indo-German ties—despite the final nuclear test hiccup—experienced a much-needed resuscitation after the stagnation that followed the Emergency declared by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. During the Emergency, socialist leaders like present Indian defence minister George Fernandes—who was a member of the Socialist International, then headed by former West German Chancellor Willy Brandt—were jailed.

Almost all of western Europe will be taking the leftward path, now that Schroeder and his Social Democratic Party (SDP) has dislodged Kohl. At present, socialists or Social Democrats head nine out of 15 member states of the European Union and serve as junior partners in coalition governments in Belgium, Italy and Luxembourg.

And since the Christian Democratic Union headed by Kohl and its Bavarian sister-party, the Christian Social Union, have rejected a coalition with the SDP, the left-wing Alliance 90/The Greens group has, for the first time, a real chance of sitting at the Cabinet table in Bonn.

SIGNIFICANTLY for India, Green Party leader Joschka Fischer—who has grown with issues such as environmental protection and disarmament—is being touted as the foreign minister of the new coalition government. "This might pose some difficulties in relations with India," warns a political analyst. Says Uschi Eid the Green Party's development affairs expert: "Combating poverty and averting an ecological disaster are two cardinal objectives of development aid." Yet Eid is opposed to using development assistance in "a carrot and stick" fashion, to reward good guys and punish bad ones.

Eid, who is expected to take up a senior post at the Economic Cooperation Ministry (BMZ) or an influential position in a parliamentary budget committee, said she could understand India's dismay that five powers—US, Russia, Britain, France and China—had monopolised nuclear weapons. "But proliferation isn't the appropriate response. When nations in need of development aid make bombs instead of focusing on poverty alleviation, it's difficult to convince the German taxpayer of the need for aid."

바카라 웹사이트A similar argument was given by outgoing economic cooperation minister Carl-Dieter Spranger to suspend negotiations on next year's concessional financial assistance worth about $186 million, following the May 11 nuclear tests. The Indian delegation in Bonn was asked to go home. Yet, funds committed last year and in the pipeline were kept flowing.

This dualistic stance was also reflected in German federal President Roman Herzog's address at a banquet hosted in September for President K.R. Narayanan. "No one should be surprised that these tests have met with rejection worldwide," said Herzog. "...(But) we shouldn't allow this issue to overshadow our traditionally good ties. The great Indian nation has achieved a lot since independence," he said, referring to advances in literacy and software development.

Satinder K. Lambah, the outgoing Indian ambassador to Bonn, sees in this State visit a sign that "Germany attaches significance to intensifying and deepening relations with India". During the president's visit, India and Germany signed a memorandum of understanding for "more effective cooperation in environmental affairs".

바카라 웹사이트Ambassador Lambah has been acquainting the Green Party and the SPD with India's ties with its neighbours and its concerns about the anti-dumping measures envisaged against developing lands within the framework of the World Trade Organisation. Consequently, India now has supporters among MPs from both parties.

Another supporter of increased ties is the Indo-German Consultative Group which comprises German MPs, businessmen, bankers, academicians and journalists. At an August meet, the group asked the government and business to fully realise India's significance.

The interest was underlined when President Narayanan met the group in Bonn and stressed that economic cooperation with Germany "is vital in India's cooperation with the EU". Participants included members of the boards of management of enterprises representing capital goods, transport, mining, automobiles, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and banking. Top executives of the Mittelstand—medium-sized companies which form the backbone of Germany's economy—were also present.

Against this backdrop, Wolfgang Massing from the Foreign Office's South Asia desk is optimistic that Indo-German ties can be "further deepened". In a first attempt, the foreign secretaries of Germany, Austria and the UK will visit Delhi for talks in November. Massing notes a new element in the widening ties: exchanges between federal German states and Indian states have intensified. In the coming months, economic ministers of 10 out of the 16 federal states will visit India, along with Mittelstand businessmen. Clearly, in the changing scenario of Indo-German ties, both red and green lights are flashing.