Canada Can't Decide

CANADA may have escaped a messy break-up last week, but there is no joy in any quarter—neither among the federalists pleading with French-speaking Quebec to stay with Canada, nor among the separatists who managed to persuade almost half of the five-million voters to say yes to separation on October 30. The problem is the razor-thin majority by which the federalists won. Just 50.6 per cent voted no to separation, 49.4 per cent yes—and the 1 per cent that won constituted hardly any victory at all. Both sides were hoping that the Quebec issue, on the simmer for decades, would be resolved once and for all. Instead, this referendum turned out to be a revolving door. The country is still agonising over the question: will Canada survive?

How the story will play out is already becoming clear. On the night of the referendum, one of Quebec's ministers announced that although the separatists would accept the verdict, "Canada is a country on paper". Quebec premier and the separatist Parti Quebecois chief Jacques Parizeau declared that the numbers made a clear case for another referendum. Soon.

The strategy is clear: wear down the federal government, hold another referendum. Next time, other things remaining the same, the separatists' chances are better in spite of, and some would say because of, the resignation of the Quebec premier. For, the man likely to replace him is Lucien Bouchard, leader of the separatist Bloc Quebecois in Parliament, who is credited with swaying many of the Quebeckers to the yes side.

There are few options available to Canada's ruling Liberal Party, none of them easy and all involving a departure from its preferred course of maintaining the status quo. Prime Minister Jean Chretien can make the constitutional changes Quebeckers are demanding, including recognition of Quebec as a "distinct society". He could go a step further and look into a renewed federalism, perhaps using the decentralised Swiss federation as a model. This would solve the question once and for all. Chretien could also choose a third course. He could close the door on more referendums, a possibility he's hinted at but one that is fraught with danger.

Chretien has taken the first small step. He agrees that the referendum result makes change necessary. But how far is he prepared to go? Recognising Quebec as a distinct society opens another can of worms. Canada's other provinces, while agreeing to change, are unlikely to agree to special treatment for Quebec.

What this means for the country is that the most urgent item on its agenda—the economy—will be edged out for Quebec. Clearly, the Quebec issue is not about to melt into the night. Indeed, Francophone Quebec's political and economic grievances have now become knotty and emotional. The whole province is drawn: some 94 per cent of Quebec's voters turned up to vote—the national figure is around 75 per cent.

For minorities in Quebec, there are tense days ahead. Quebec's premier openly blamed the separatists' narrow loss on "money and the ethnic vote". More indication that Quebec's ethnic nationalism is becoming exclusionary and racist came from the angry remarks made by its deputy premier to an immigrant hotel clerk on the night of the referendum. Deputy Premier Bernard Landry, also the immigration minister, has since then resigned, but the minorities, 9 per cent of Quebec's electorate, are not reassured. A South Asian news programme interviewed an Indian expert on the subject this weekend. His advice to Indians in Quebec: invest elsewhere in Canada.

But there are silver linings on Premier Chretien's cloud. One, pre-referendum polls revealed that almost half the voters who said yes to separation believed they would continue to be Canadian in some way, hold Canadian passports and send politicians to Ottawa, a misunderstanding that the separatists forgot to correct. This con-firms English Canada's hope that Quebeckers are not ready to leave. The analogy one columnist used to describe the situation is interesting: Quebec, he said, is the angry and neglected wife threatening to leave, but her heart is not really in it and the right words will turn her back from the door.

Chretien can also take pride in the fact that his is a country that can, as he put it, "debate its very existence without violence". It is, however, an ability that is in short supply these days.바카라 웹사이트