Critical Mass?

THE seismic aftershocks that hit Islamabad after the Indian nuclear tests are still reverberating across the length and breadth of the country. All eyes are focused on prime minister Nawaz Sharif: will he or won’t he finally go for a nuclear test? Going by the reaction from every corner of the country including the main opposition parties, it appears that Sharif has no choice left, demurrals notwithstanding.

But pressure on Pakistan by the US to eschew nuclear tests has increased, with the Clinton administration hectically pursuing a carrot and stick approach. Within days of the Pokhran tests, a high-level US mission—headed by deputy secretary of state Strobe Talbott and assistant secretary of state for South Asia Karl Inderfurth—arrived in Pakistan. After its first meeting with Pakistani officials, Talbott refused to divulge whether Islamabad had given an undertaking not to conduct a nuclear test and simply told newsmen: "It is particularly important for good friends like Pakistan and the US to understand each other’s views at difficult times."

Islamabad heard the news of the Pokhran tests at a time when Sharif had chosen to extend his stay in Almaty, Kazakhstan. Since he holds the defence portfolio too, it was left to a lame-duck foreign minister, Gohar Ayub Khan, to keep the stiff upper lip and tell the nation that Pakistan was considering an appropriate response.

바카라 웹사이트It was not only the US intelligence which was calling it the "intelligence failure of the decade". The chief of army staff (COAS), General Jehangir Karamat, said: "We are prepared for any security environment." Hitting out at global powers for failing to maintain vigilance despite being warned by Islamabad, Karamat said: "We are not surprised by these explosions. Since the BJP government took over in India, there have been constant statements to activate the country’s missile and nuclear programme. The Indian defence minister said a few days ago that the greatest threat to India comes from China. At the time the world should have been on alert."

바카라 웹사이트The day after, photographs of a worried COAS and chief scientist Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan were splashed across the newspapers as they put their heads together at a diplomatic reception where they met by chance. Leaving the final decision to the government, Qadeer nevertheless said that he was ready for the blast. "We are like a cook who can prepare whatever the owner of the house will order. We will put spices according to the wishes of the owner. The holy Quran also says we should always be united and prepared," was the doctor’s prescription. Though Qadeer said that a week was all that he needed, latest American reports indicated that Pakistan could tighten the screws in just three days.

But as the time of reckoning neared, a question that was being asked was that now that Pakistan’s bluff had been called, did it really have such a capability? "Pakistan’s top nuclear scientist, Qadeer, says there is nothing to worry about because the country has sufficient technological heft to respond to the Indian challenge," The Frontier Post, an English daily, said in an editorial. "He has been making pretty loud statements in recent days which saner elements regard undesirable. Little did the great scientist know that his assertions would be put to test that soon. Some observers, therefore, tend to view the Indian challenge with obvious trepidation. What if Islamabad had been bluffing about its much-vaunted nuclear capability, they ask."

This was a point being rubbed home by none other than former ISI chief General Hamid Gul, who asserted: "If we do not respond now, the whole nation would plunge into deep depression. It will also have a demoralising effect in the region and in the Muslim world. Friendly countries will begin to doubt our capability." Almost immediately, the Iranian government called upon Pakistan to detonate a nuclear device. "It is the conspiracy of the West to keep Pakistan out of the nuclear club. The US wants to pit India against Pakistan," Tehran radio called out.

This week was certainly not a time for either the peaceniks or doves who had flown the coop and were nowhere in sight. They had been proved wrong, and how! The feeling amongst many of them was that the BJP government would be not only unstable, what with contradictory pressures from its electoral partners, but it will also tend to eschew rhetoric once it is in the seat of power. The head of the Institute of Regional Studies, General Nishat Ahmed, had told 바카라 on the eve of the BJP coming to power: "The BJP is slowly modifying its statements. I do not think it will go overtly nuclear. They will find some excuse to retract from their election stand."

IF there was one defence analyst who had read the BJP’s intentions right, it was someone who had never worn a uniform. In March Shireen Mazari had told 바카라: "A BJP government will be very good for Pakistan because Indian designs will come out in the open. New Delhi will now openly be speaking about issues which matter to Pakistan. Especially where nuclear weapons are concerned, the duplicity of the Indian programme will be exposed to the international community."

After the latest nuclear blasts, she lost no time in telling Sharif that his government alone can decide whether it will be pushed into this new milieu willy nilly or whether it will move forward on its own terms, keeping its national interests foremost. "India may have defined the new milieu’s framework by its nuclear tests, but Pakistan can still help define the operational mode within this milieu if it chooses to do so," she pointed out.

As the entire world focuses on New Delhi, at least in the region there is no love lost for the only superpower in the world. While the Indians told Washington to go take a walk and stop interfering in their internal affairs, Sharif, speaking to Bill Clinton on telephone, did not mince his words either. "Like any other country, Pakistan must give priority to its security needs and it has no option but to take appropriate measures to protect its sovereignty and security, in accordance with the aspirations of the people," he told the US president. Recalling the letter he had written to him, Sharif said he was disappointed that the US had failed to recognise the imminent threat posed by the Indian nuclear programme.

In fact, New Delhi has put the whole American South Asian policy in a spin. Where will Washington go from here? What will be left of the American president’s visit to the region? Foreign policy analyst Talat Hussain replies: "For all practical purposes, Washington now has to find a new policy to fit South Asia’s totally reshaped nuclear reality. It cannot use its old arguments to dissuade Pakistan from not pursuing the same path that India has, one of which was, do not do it because India has not done it."

There are really only a handful who care to look beyond the power of the bombs. "It would be a grave mistake to go nuclear when the entire international pressure is on India. If Pakistan goes for a nuclear test, international pressure would be directed towards us. It would help India escape the global condemnation," Dr Mahbub-ul Haq cautions.

Adds Admiral Fasih Bokhari, the naval chief: "What about the steps beyond the nuclear test? Because then you are talking about weaponisation. Do India and Pakistan have that kind of money to go in for nuclear weapons? Are we ready to eat grass?" But for a nation which saw the Ghauri missile as only an appetiser, the Indian nuclear tests has them craving for more.