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Mixed Stakes

The success of the Taliban in Afghanistan has alarmed various a countries In Asia. India, Iran, Russia, Tajikstan and even China are keenly watching the situation as it evolves in this country which has witnessed bloody internecine warfare since 1992, "It's a now-or-never situation for Pakistan, both diplomatically and militarily in Afghanistan, says a defence expert.

While India is concerned about the possibility of Kabul falling to an Islamic fundamentalist group like Taliban, Shiite Iran is worried about the Wahabi Sunni Taliban taking control of the territory along its border. This explains why it sat up when the Taliban took over Herat and drove out a Rabbani loyalist, Ismail Khan, from there. Denying its involvement in the recapture of Herat, or a part of it, Iran has affirmed its neutrality In the current imbroglio. China has its own problems in the bordering Sinkiang province, which is why it would not be pleased about a fundamentalist group taking control of Kabul.

India would like to preserve Afghanistan in its present form. With Central Asia opening up, a fundamentalist regime in Afghanistan can create serious strategic problems, especially if it is controlled by Pakistan. The Taliban already control the Kandhar-Herat highway, the land mute to Central Asia. But then Pakistan too Is playing a risky game. History has it that all those countries who have tried to control Kabul through puppet regimes have had to pay a heavy price. Ask the British.

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