Neighbourly Caution

THE process of government formation by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is perceived as an anti-Muslim political force in Pakistan, has evoked mixed emotions and sentiments in the Islamic nation. While the Government continues to adhere to the usual diplomatic pleasantries, the public seems worried. For one, given the Congress' role in pre-Partition India, the party's defeat has been welcomed. Before Independence, the Muslim League viewed the Congress as its main adversary and the Pakistanis have still not forgotten the tension between Muslims and Hindus.

But the Pakistan Foreign Office remains careful for obvious reasons. Officially, it echoes the stereotype answer that for Pakistan it does not matter which party comes to power in New Delhi. "The important thing for us is what kind of signals the new government sends on major matters like Kashmir, the nuclear programme and defence-related issues. It is irrelevant whether it is the BJP or any other party," says an official concerned with Indo-Pak relations.바카라 웹사이트

The general impression that a BJP government would not augur well for Pakistan is not really subscribed to by the Foreign Office. Says an official: "We know what the BJP has been shouting. But there is a difference between declaratory policy and practical statesmanship. They can make belligerent statements on issues like the Ram Mandir, India's nuclear plan and minorities but it's a different ballgame when one forms a government and has to deal with Pakistan and other countries." Without elaborating, he said there could be many ways of diplomatic intricacy through which the new Indian Government could make its intentions known.

At the same time, Foreign Office officials are maintaining a "let's wait till May 31" posture. "Our analysis is that the BJP will not be able to make it (prove their majority in Lok Sabha)," says an official. "In fact, we would be amazed if they do."

바카라 웹사이트Whatever the outcome, the establishment here has no doubt that it would be a weak government, always struggling to survive. According to the Foreign Office, this could result in positive as well as negative repercussions for Pakistan. The general perception is: "The fragile coalition would not dare to take hard decisions which could benefit Pakistan. But at the same time, the very fact of being weak would force it to bank more and more on the Indian military and civilian establishment. There would be short-term steps vis-a-vis Pakistan devoid of any real political thought."바카라 웹사이트

The Foreign Office also feels that there is going to be real tension between the upper castes and the underprivileged in India, which could lead to serious disturbances. "But the instability in itself can also be described as a binding factor in India's politics. Besides, India has had a stable political system. They have come through some rough times in the past also. Therefore, it is very early to say at this point of time that the recent electoral verdict means India is heading for disaster," point out Foreign Ministry sources.

Mushahid Hussain, information secretary of the opposition Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and a defence analyst, does not agree. He thinks India is heading for serious trouble which could range from civil strife to disintegration. Says he: "For the first time the elected dynasty has lost its appeal and the Congress factor has been marginalised. Regional issues have become the determining elements and the identity of parties appears to be rooted in religion. Things like Hindu-isation of Hindus is a clear indication. Interestingly, to a great extent, it testifies to the two-nation theory." Mushahid Hussain is quite confident that India will have to go in for early elections, if not this year then by 1997. "India is in for further instability and the clear division between the Right, Left and Centre is going to further contribute to it," he opines.

FROM Pakistan's point of view, he says there should be no cause for alarm if the BJP Government does survive. "The Indian policy on Kashmir and the nuclear issue have always had a broad consistency and continuity. It does not really alter much with a change of face on the political scene. Besides, Atal Behari Vajpayee is already known in Pakistan. He came to Pakistan as foreign minister and that was the period when Indo-Pak relations were pretty smooth."바카라 웹사이트

In fact, he argues that contrary to general perception, a BJP Government should be a healthy development for Pakistan. "In a sense, it would provide a year's breather to Pakistan," he explains. "Instead of Pakistan being in the focus, it would be India which would face international pressure on issues like Hindu fundamentalism, CTBT and missile technology. With India facing political turmoil and the US busy with the presidential elections, the focus is likely to shift from Pakistan for the time being. For once India would have to be on the defensive."

바카라 웹사이트But Professor Khalid Mehmood, author of a book on Indian politics and an established journalist, rules out the possibility of the BJP Government surviving. He feels that it would be virtually impossible for Vajpayee to woo the smaller parties. As for Indo-Pak relations, he does not see any major change in the foreign policy of any new government.

In his opinion, the 11th general election has ushered in an era of coalition regimes in India. "Whether the incoming government can acquire a measure of stability or collapse in mid-term, there seems little possibility of a return to the familiar scenario of one-party rule in the near future," he prophecies.

For his part, Nawabzada Nasarullah Khan, a seasoned politician and chairman of the Kashmir committee of Parliament, minces no words in warning the Pakistani nation against the BJP's aggressive designs. "They are going to have the same anti-Pakistan stand whether they are in government or in the opposition," he warns. "The BJP's victory also reflects the Hindu mentality which has made it the single largest party. Further, their manifesto mentions slogans like making nuclear bombs, ending Kashmir's special status and annexing (Pakistan-occupied) Kashmir, which is a clear sign of naked aggression. On top of it, Vajpayee, immediately after the elections, vowed that the Ram temple will be built. It all shows their attitude will not change towards Indian Muslims and Pakistanis even if they get into the government. In fact, a weak BJP Government would be more dangerous for us because it might resort to desperate steps to stay in power."

바카라 웹사이트Former caretaker prime minister and now an independent member of the National Assembly, Mir Balakh Sher Mazari, however, thinks that international obligations and pressures would compel the BJP leadership to take a balanced and moderate position towards Pakistan. "They can't be that foolish as to take a totally aggressive stand against us," he says. "But at the same time, they would have their own interests to watch and we should not indulge in any wishful thinking." He also stresses that a lot would depend on Pakistan's own political and economic conditions and how the Pakistan Government deals with the situation.

Former army chief General Mirza Aslam Beg echoes a different sentiment: "Pakistan has to be very, very cautious and careful. It has to take precautions against any adventure that they may like to indulge in." He feels that India's hung Parliament is bound to be 'fractured' and the country is likely to become inward-looking as a result. Besides, moves by 'die-hards and fanatics' cannot be predicted.

Another MP and senior member of the ruling Pakistan People's Party, Riaz Hussain Pirzada, thinks the BJP's stint in power would go in Pakistan's favour. "For a start, their extremist outlook is going to expose India's so-called secular character. The longer the BJP remains in government, the greater would be its mistakes vis-a-vis minorities and Pakistan," he says. "Their pro-Hindu crusade is going to blow up the myth of India being a liberal democracy. In a way it is good for us. Pakistan would gain from such a scenario and even our own political culture would improve considerably by learning from the experience of India."

While Pakistani observers and policy-makers may differ over whether to be happy, cautious or worried over the new Government, one thing is clear: Islamabad will continue to keep a close watch on developments in New Delhi.