Nukes And Crannies

RARELY has the agenda of a meeting between two heads of State/government been decided as publicly as this. Specifically, what is not to be discussed was decided publicly. The significance of a meeting between Prime Minister I.K. Gujral and President Bill Clinton could not be underestimated, though the hesitation displayed by New Delhi reflected a certain needless lack of confidence on its part. Equally needless was the controversy which erupted in India over the proposed meeting. In the event, it has assumed greater importance than Gujral's visit to the United Nations where he will address the General Assembly on September 24. The UN visit is now a side show.

It has been a long time since an Indian prime minister met a US president—the last meeting was in May 1994 when Narasimha Rao met Clinton in Washington. Considering that the two countries pride themselves on being the biggest democracies in the world, it has been rather a long period for their leaders not to have met. From being a small blip on the US diplomatic radars in Clinton's first term, there is suddenly more activity in the US State Department's South Asia division in Clinton's second term. And the exit of Robin Raphel as US assistant secretary of state and her replacement by Karl Inderfurth should help. At least in ties with India. Besides, with Thomas Pickering as the undersecretary of state for political affairs, there will be an old South Asia hand (Pickering was briefly US ambassador to India before moving to Moscow) to add his inputs to the US policy towards this region.

바카라 웹사이트Sources say the Clinton-Gujral meeting is expected to last between 45 minutes to an hour. While there won't be huge delegations accompanying the two leaders, they will be assisted by a couple of officers each from the two sides.

바카라 웹사이트Since the meeting is taking place after such a long gap, there is plenty on the table for the two to discuss. It's going to be a "wide-ranging strategic dialogue", say sources. Gujral is expected to give his assessment to Clinton on the security and political situation in South Asia, specially Kashmir. The recent visit of Karl Inderfurth to New Delhi has set the tone for exchanges on these issues between the two leaders. It will be naive to expect that Clinton will not raise or discuss the Kashmir dispute or Indo-Pak problems since it impinges on the security in the region.

Disarmament is high on the agenda in Clinton's second term. This, too, would be reflected in the New York talks. The problems with the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty still exist and discussions on the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty will open soon—issues on which India and the US have major differences. These are sensitive subjects on which a dialogue existed at one time. There is contextual relevance also in that Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif once again confirmed some days ago that his country does have nuclear capability. Gujral and Clinton may ask officials to resume the dialogue. "India is also keen to get the contours of the American policy on China in general, and Tibet, in particular," say South Block sources. The US activity on Tibet has increased considerably in recent months—a source of great worry to GUPTA the Chinese—and a new post of a special coordinator on Tibet was created in the US State Department.

Economic ties will figure prominently in the talks. Indo-US bilateral trade today stands at around $10 billion. And direct US investment in India stands at about $1.2 billion. The US has been aggressively pushing for greater liberalisation and sources expect Clinton to add his considerable authority to these efforts. "President Clinton may flag his concerns on economic issues, especially in areas like intellectual property rights, insurance, removal of quantitative restrictions (QRs) and urge for greater liberalisation," say Indian officials. India wants to reduce the QRs gradually, while the US wants it removed immediately.

Perhaps the most important issue from India's point of view is that of the permanent membership of the UN Security Council. Having miserably lost the election to the non-permanent seat to Japan last year, India, and Gujral specifically, has been worried at the prospect of having to contest the permanent seat, as is being envisaged in the UN reforms. Indonesia is most likely to be the nation India will have to contest against. A little American help can go a long way. But will they help? Only if India falls in line on disarmament issues. For Gujral, it is a no-win situation.