The Race Begins

Democratic President Bill Clinton has all but been guaranteed his party's nomination by default, as no one has yet stepped forward to challenge the incumbent. But it's another story for the nine Grand Old Party (GoP) candidates who took part in the Iowa caucus. Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas survived as the frontrun-ner, but only barely, with 26 per cent of the vote. Firebrand commentator Pat Buchanan's second-place finish (23 per cent) was a big surprise, as well as the rise of Tennessee's former governor Lamar Alexander (18 per cent). Publisher Steve Forbes, who spent $4 million on TV ads, was fourth (10 per cent), and Texas Sen Phil Gramm fin-ished fifth (9 per cent). The balance results: Alan Keyes (7 per cent), Richard Lugar (4 per cent), Morry Taylor (1 per cent), and Robert Dornan (0 per cent).

Buchanan's last-minute surge and Forbes' belly flop demonstrate that cultural issues like crime, illegal immigration, welfare, abortion and gay rights ranked high with Iowa voters. Iowa Republicans are mostly white, middle-aged, and politically middle-of-the road. (In contrast, New Hampshire voters are younger and less conservative.)

바카라 웹사이트Older voters and those who value Washington experience helped Dole to his narrow victory in Iowa. In recent months, the elder statesman with 37 years in the Senate has moved to the right on many social issues and admitted conservatives into his circle of advisers. But at 72, Dole is fighting off opponents' charges—and voters' doubts—that he is too old to lead the nation into the 21st century. Twicebefore, in 1980 and 1988, he seemed positioned to win the Republican nomination, but stumbled off his perch in New Hampshire. Most commentators agree that it is his race to win or lose.

With religious conservatives boosting him to a strong second-place showing in Iowa, Buchanan has suddenly become a powerful force in the presidential race. Although New Hampshire has fewer socialconservatives than Iowa, Buchanan's "America First" message is likely to appeal to younger, bluecollar voters in New Hampshire who fear that foreigners are stealing their jobs.

Alexander can now compete with the sizable part of the GOP that dislikes Dole and considers Buchanan a loose cannon. His 'ABC' message—as in 'Alexander Beats Clinton'—and his low-key 'outsider' campaign gained him brownie points. If Dole fails, the man likely to pick up the pieces is Alexander. His appeal is that he is a younger, more energetic Dole, is inoffensive, but also doesn't inspire fierce loyalty.

Forbes' dismal fourth-place finish in Iowa was attributed to his rejection of social conservative voters and to his relentlessly negative advertising against Dole. He based hiscandidacy on support for a flat tax of 17 per cent that would scrap much of the Internal Revenue Service, but his well-received economic message was diluted by the ferocity of his negative campaigning.

The biggest loser in the Iowa caucus was Gramm, whose miserable finish stripped him of all remaining credibility. His pro-life, pro-gun views may have been too extreme, even for Republicans. He is expected to announce his exit from the race soon.

New Hampshire's winner has ridden to the White House in each election since 1952, with one exception, Bill Clinton. But even Clinton's strong second in 1992 could be regarded as a victory because he survived New Hampshire—despite adouble-whammy of scandal involving his avoidance of the military draft and the Gennifer Flowers episode.

The 41 delegates from Iowa and New Hampshire represent only two per cent of the 1,990 delegates who will converge in San Diego for the GOP convention in August to choose the party's standard bearer for the general election. No one wins the nomination without winning the primary election. No one wins the nomination without winning the primary season's landmark contests—the battle for the South or "Super Tuesday" (March 12), or California (March 26). "You can't get to those state elections if you've been knocked flat in Iowa and New Hampshire," says political operative Ed Rollins.