The opposition says no to polls conducted by the Zia government
BANGLADESH Prime Minister Khaleda Zia finally took the plunge on November 24. The nation waited with bated breath to hear her nationally televisedspeech, hoping for some positive announcement that would break the long running political impasse gripping Bangladesh for nearly two years.
Instead, apart from an announcement of the dissolution of Parliament, Zia's 40-minute speech contained little more than a cliche-ridden recapitulation of the successes of her four-and-a-half-year-old government. It clearly failed to impress most people, who saw no possibility of a compromise.
The dissolution was not wholly unexpected. However, it has not solved the problem. The opposition, which had been pressing for elections under a caretaker government, has announced it will not participate in the general elections that will have to be held before February 22, under Khaleda Zia's government.
The opposition camp did not confine its reaction to mere disappointment. Moments after Zia's address to the nation, opposition activists damaged cars and exploded bombs in Dhaka and elsewhere. Not to be outdone, supporters of the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) took to the streets chanting slogans in support of the prime minister's "brilliant speech".
The immediate cause cited by Zia for dissolution was the open threat by the opposition parties to resist the by-elections scheduled for December. To meet constitutional obligations, the Election Commission, on November 22, announced the schedule for by-elections to fill 145 seats vacated as a result of the en masse resignation of all the opposition MPs last December.
The resignations followed more than nine months of opposition boycott of Parliament and violent anti-government protests to force the government to hold mid-term elections under a neutral caretaker government.
This demand was consistently rejected by the ruling party on the grounds that it was unconstitutional. The Constitution does not provide for the formation of a caretaker government. To do so it must be amended by a two-third majority in the 330-seat Parliament.
"That's the reason why we demandedthat the ruling party should bring the bill to Parliament," said Mohammad Nasim, organising secretary of the Awami League. "We're aware that without their support the amendment cannot be passed." The ruling BNP, however, argued that the acceptance of the opposition demand would have simply discredited the popularlyelected government.
The three main opposition parties—the Awami League, Jatiya Party and Jamaat-e-Islami—have constantly complained about the BNP's high-handedness. But what triggered the opposition's movement against the government was the alleged rigging of a by-election in the northern Magura district early last year.
As the sparring between the two sides continued, the seemingly desperate opposition resorted to programmes ranging from street protests to marathon strikes, one of which recently shut down thecountry for six days at a stretch.
But nothing seemed to shake the government out of its complacency as the opposition programmes failed to draw widespread public sympathy, let alone active support. This was reflected in the dismal turnout at opposition rallies and meetings in recent months. Independent observers say the opposition has failed to rally public support because of its inability to convincingly articulate its demands. Cashing in on the public apathy, the government pretended it was business as usual. But with its five-year term about to expire on April 4, 1996, it seems to have suddenly woken up to the necessity of addressingthe opposition's demand, so that it participates in the elections.
The dissolution of Parliament is seen as a first step intended to placate the opposition. Indeed, after Parliament was dissolved, Sheikh Hasina, chief of the Awami League, said: "It is our victory."
In addition, Zia's speech contained an invitation, though somewhat vague, to the opposition for a dialogue. There had been many proposals for talks earlier but what particularly caught the attention of many independent observers this time is the lack of any vitriol towards the opposition in her speech. Abdus Salam Talukdar, secretary general of the BNP and minister for local government, said they would do everything to reach a compromise with the opposition. "I hope the opposition will come to some sort of an understanding and participate in the elections," he said in an interview. However, he could not clarify on what terms a compromise could be fashioned.
The prospect of forming a caretaker government has gone with the dissolution of Parliament. The Constitution does not give the president, a titular head, any authority to form an interim government with neutral people to conduct elections. No wonder the opposition's threat to boycott elections has people worried. "It's a difficult situation," concedes Mohammad Nasim,an Awami League stalwart. One theory is that the president will seek the opinion of the Supreme Court on whether a way can be found to satisfy both sides.
"It's a highly complex constitutional matter," said Dr Syed Mainuddin Hussain, a constitutional expert. Under the Constitution, he says, the president cannot take any decision without the consent of the prime minister. He noted: "This is a real crisis."
A crisis that, apparently, no one is able to resolve. At present, the general impression is that the ruling party and the opposition are waiting for a miracle to salvage the situation. The coming days are bound to be critical.