Taipei's neighbours are keen to avoid irking Beijing
THE credibility of the ASEAN RegionalForum (ARF) will be seriously questioned if the 18-member-grouping fails to play a role in resolving the China-Taiwan crisis, admittedly the most destabilising security problem in the region since the end of the Vietnam War in 1975.
Though it's well-placed to do so, it seems the ARF is not going to play much of a role at its next meeting, slated for mid-1996. This is because China, a key ARF member, is unlikely to allow the grouping to encroach into what it regards as essentially a bilateral matter, a family quarrel even.
Once the Taiwan poll results came out, ARF member countries said they adhered to the one-China policy, under which Taiwan is treated as an integral part of China. Thai Defence Minister General Chavalit Yong-chaiyudh said the ARF believed tensions between China and Taiwan could only be resolved peacefully when it was regarded as an internal affair of the Chinese. China, he said, would not want to disrupt the economic development of Asia, but he added that recent Chinese military exercises near Taiwan should serve as a warning to Taiwan not to declare itself independent.
It appears that US Under Secretary of State Peter Tarnoff was aware of China's reservations when he said recently that the ARF was not designed to deal with the management of crises. Strategic analysts say that should future talks between China and Taiwan fail, and should Taiwan press on with moves toward independence, fora like the ARF can help find a solution.
For its part, the ARF has a lot of clout, given its wide spread—the seven ASEAN states, the US, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, the European Union, Papua New Guinea, China and Laos. Should Taiwan revive its bid to gain independence and, en passant, a UN seat, tensions with the mainland will rise again. There is within ASEAN a strong consensus that any crisis would certainly destabilise the economic well-being of ASEAN states.
US officials say that a recent appeal by Singapore's senior minister Lee Kuan Yew to China and Taiwan to resolve the issue peacefully was heeded owing to his stature as an elder statesman and his cordial relations with both states. In a speech on March 3, Lee urged both sides to start anew by putting aside past misunderstandings, and suggested they draw up a blueprint for gradual and eventual reunification. At the same time, he suggested the two sides agree on a set of markers to give Taiwan 'international space' for economic and cultural purposes. But Lee stressed that negotiations must be held within the framework of the 'one China' policy. That is a view other ASEAN members agree with.
Thai newspaper The Nation criticised Bangkok for an 'obsequious China policy', one that the country would gain little from. The same goes for other ASEAN members hungry for Taiwanese investment.
India, lobbying for a seat in the ARF, has also been criticised for its reticence over the developments in the Taiwan Straits. Having adhered to a 'one China' policy since 1949, it accords more priority to its interests on the Sino-Indian border than in western Pacific. But while reticence might help relations with Beijing, having failed to join the ASEAN pleas for restraint on the part of Beijing and the US may affect Delhi's credibility as an ARF aspirant.
Over in Beijing, visiting Thai Premier Banharn Silpa-Archa said on March 25 that the Taiwan affair was an internal matter of China and should be solved by the Chinese people themselves without foreign interference. And ASEAN's position is pretty much the same.