Uncertain Agenda

When Chinese President Jiang Zemin begins his three-day visit to India on November 28, he will become the first ever Chinese head of state to do so. Since he is also the general secretary of the ruling Chinese Communist Party and the chairman of the Central Military Commission, much political significance is being attached to the trip. As Sujit Dutta, specialist on China at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, says: "He is the new paramount leader and combines three important posts in one."바카라 웹사이트

This will be the most important meeting between the two neighbours since former prime minister P.V. Narasimha Rao visited China in September 1993 and signed the Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). In between in 1994, Li Rui Huan and in 1995, Qiao Shi, number four and number three, respectively, in the Chinese hierarchy, visited India. Jiang will be accompanied by Foreign Minister Qian Qui Chen, Minister for Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Madam Wuyi and Chairman of the Chinese Autonomous Region of Tibet, Gyaltsen Norbu.

While External Affairs Ministry officials refuse to disclose the exact items on the agenda, there will be no breakthrough on the delicate border issue, as is being speculated in some quarters. External Affairs Minister I.K. Gujral told 바카라 that solving the border dispute is an ongoing process and the Joint Working Group (JWG) formed following the 1993 agreement is at work on it.바카라 웹사이트

However, as Dutta says, the thrust of the visit will be political. "We should hear the Chinese views on global issues and on how they see India," he points out. "These are the crucial issues. You can’t sign the border agreement on this visit. The two countries have been recently working on confidence-building measures (CBMs)." In any case the border agreement can’t be signed without a proper political configuration in New Delhi and that does not exist at present.

The JWG had basically two objectives: to work on the border issue and the maintenance of peace and tranquility along the LAC. Presently the two countries are focus-sing on the latter as discussions on the former continue. India and China are expected to sign some agreements to enhance the existing CBMs in the military field. This may include issues related to the number of troops on the LAC, the distance at which they will be deployed and increased interaction between military commanders on the border. Another important issue under discussion is clarification of the LAC where the two countries differ. Gujral also mentions agreements on double taxation, investment protection and shipping that will be signed during the visit. Then there is the proposal to work on increasing the volume of bilateral trade between the two countries which in 1996 amounted to $1.05 billion, an increase of 20 per cent over last year. During this period, Indian exports to China went up by 88.5 per cent.

바카라 웹사이트But will India take up the issues of disarmament and Chinese nuclear help to Islamabad? "I can’t discuss these things now. It can queer the whole visit," says Gujral. However, there are strong indications that India will flag its concerns, as China is expected to raise its concerns about Tibet.

The inclusion of the head of Tibet in the delegation is an interesting pointer to the Chinese thinking. Beijing has always been uneasy about the presence of the Dalai Lama in India and the assurance by Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda to his Chinese counterpart in Rome this month that the Tibetan leader would not be allowed to carry out any political activity in India has to be seen in this light. Various Tibetan groups are expected to hold protests during Jiang’s visit, and the Government is likely to come down hard on them.

Meanwhile, the timing of Jiang’s visit reflects Beijing’s assessment that despite the perceived instability of the United Front Government, the system in India is stable enough for them to let their president undertake a visit. Interestingly, a couple of months ago, at a diplomatic party where the subject of discussion was the survival or otherwise of the Gowda Government, a Chinese diplomat was heard saying that they hoped it would last beyond November.

The visit clearly indicates that the Chinese leadership also feels the necessity of carrying on the dialogue to normalise relations with India. However, India will be just one of the stops on Jiang’s itinerary. He will reach New Delhi from the Philippines, after attending the APEC summit, and will go on to Pakistan and Nepal. Some observers argue that China really does not consider India a great power. Besides, it has never projected India as a threat to its security. There has never been an official statement on India’s development of the Agni missile, which has the range to reach China.

However, while the two countries may cooperate at the UN and agree on issues like human rights, there is a sharp divergence on disarmament. It was essentially because of the Chinese insistence that the controversial entry-into-force clause in the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty was not modified. The inclusion of this clause was one of the major reasons for India blocking the treaty in the Conference on Disarmament. India saw this clause as an attempt to force it into signing the treaty. While the US was flexible on the matter, China refused to budge.

In the recent voting for the non-permanent seat, China voted for India, but that can be explained by its long-standing rivalry with Japan. China has strategic ambitions in South-East Asia and South Asia, which can be a matter of concern to India. It continues to offer clandestine support to the Pakistani nuclear programme. Which makes the forthcoming visit all the more significant for the discussion of crucial issues.바카라 웹사이트