Different Agenda: Can The State Assembly Elections Impact Lok Sabha Battle?

As the results of the바카라 웹사이트five state assemblies are about to be declared, several national media houses are terming it the ‘Semi-finals’ ahead of the Lok Sabha elections of 2024. While some of them바카라 웹사이트think that it is a ‘make and break’ moment for the Congress party, others consider it as a battle that has the potential to determine the fate of the opposition coalition. However, past instances where assembly elections were held around six months prior to the scheduled general elections rarely fit into the prevailing narratives.바카라 웹사이트바카라 웹사이트

In the 2018 assembly elections, Congress won three states - Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. However, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Congress couldn’t retain its hold over any of these constituencies. In Chhattisgarh, out of 11 Lok Sabha seats, the grand old party only won one바카라 웹사이트seat. In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the fate of the Congress was even worse as in the desert state they couldn’t even manage to secure a single seat whereas in the latter, they got one바카라 웹사이트out of 29. These results certainly show that in recent times, the narratives of national elections don’t hold much water in state-level elections

“State elections are mostly fought on the basis of regional issues. The big and grand narratives do not have much space here,” says Shahroz Afridi, one of the senior-most journalists based in Madhya Pradesh. If one looks at the manifestos of the political parties in the poll-bound states, they바카라 웹사이트would have a similar perception.바카라 웹사이트바카라 웹사이트

In Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, though BJP tried to evoke the issue of Ram Mandir and rhetorics like “Pakistan closely monitoring the elections”, their major poll promises were centered around the welfare schemes. In Madhya Pradesh - a state that BJP has been ruling for the last 20 months barring a brief 15 months’ tenure of Congress, women-centric schemes of Shivraj Singh Chouhan like바카라 웹사이트Ladli Bahen Yojana, Ladli Laxmi Yojana바카라 웹사이트had taken centrestage.바카라 웹사이트바카라 웹사이트

Interestingly in Rajasthan as well, BJP focused on women to corner the ruling Congress. From constitution of anti-romeo squads to free the streets of harassers to바카라 웹사이트Lado Protashan Yoajana바카라 웹사이트where Rs바카라 웹사이트2 lakhs would be saved as a bond under the name of a household where a daughter is born and be given to her when she reaches 18; to the promised leap in the subsidy in LPG – BJP라이브 바카라 poll manifesto in Rajasthan clearly shows their new target voters.바카라 웹사이트바카라 웹사이트

In terms of reaching out to women, Congress was also not far behind. While in Rajasthan, they declared바카라 웹사이트Grah Laxmi Guarantee바카라 웹사이트through which the women head of the families would receive honorarium of Rs바카라 웹사이트10,000; in Madhya Pradesh, they promised to increase the monthly stipend of women to Rs 1,500 against the current Rs바카라 웹사이트1,250 doled out by Chouhan. In a state like Rajasthan where the sex ratio is 928 - far below than the national average of 940; experts think that such women-centric schemes and promises have the potential to influence the voters.바카라 웹사이트바카라 웹사이트

Another major focus in the last few elections have been the concerns of the farmers. In Rajasthan, while바카라 웹사이트BJP announced a higher Minimum Support Price (MSP) for wheat, in Madhya Pradesh, it was Congress라이브 바카라 turn to promise the same. Moreover, BJP in Rajasthan also announced바카라 웹사이트compensation for those farmers whose lands had been acquired by the Gehlot government for developmental projects.바카라 웹사이트바카라 웹사이트

This certain shift of the constituency to women and farmers - beyond the ‘social engineering’ formula of BJP - could also be realised in the recent address of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi. While taking to the바카라 웹사이트labharthis바카라 웹사이트(beneficiaries)- a major constituency that BJP believes had lent their support to the party in 2019 - Modi said that there are four castes - poor, youth, women and farmer.바카라 웹사이트바카라 웹사이트

The PM was addressing the Vikasit Bharat Sankalp Yatra that he announced on바카라 웹사이트November 15바카라 웹사이트from Jharkhand in a bid to apprise the people of the success of the central government schemes. Notably, he launched it on the birth anniversary of Adivasi leader Birsa Munda whom the BJP has been trying to appropriate for years now.바카라 웹사이트바카라 웹사이트

Although바카라 웹사이트BJP라이브 바카라 grand narratives of nationalism, Hindutva, Ram Mandir are playing their바카라 웹사이트part in their바카라 웹사이트own way, the welfare schemes and developmental agendas targeting the aforementioned constituencies have also started gaining strength in the party's campaigns. Political analysts believe that it is because of Congress라이브 바카라 welfarist agenda and the latest results in the assembly elections that made BJP change its strategy.바카라 웹사이트

Congress for the last few years has been fighting the elections on the welfare agenda. Its sole focus on regional infrastructural issue in Karnataka against BJP라이브 바카라 provocative campaigns over halal, hijab and love jihad certainly helped them to sweep over the state. The prioritisation of infrastructural and local issues was also the basis of Aam Admi Party라이브 바카라 (AAP) huge victory in 2020 Delhi assembly elections.바카라 웹사이트

So, has the BJP learned from the opposition바카라 웹사이트and is embracing the path of welfarist politics? Or is it just a strategic response to the contemporary political demand? Notably, the Congress along with other INDIA allies have been pushing for a caste-census and after Bihar라이브 바카라 successful caste survey, the demand바카라 웹사이트has taken the centrestage. If the opposition was looking for a grand-narrative against BJP라이브 바카라 Hindutva, it is there in the OBC politics, notes a Bhopal-based journalist on the condition of anonymity.바카라 웹사이트바카라 웹사이트

The latest unveiling of former Prime Minister V P Singh라이브 바카라 statue by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin at Chennai in presence of Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav further indicates that바카라 웹사이트opposition parties바카라 웹사이트are taking OBC politics seriously.바카라 웹사이트바카라 웹사이트

OBC Mahasabha라이브 바카라 show of support for바카라 웹사이트Rahul Gandhi in Bhopal just prior to MP elections was also not received well by BJP that has been enjoying the OBC support for decades. PM Modi라이브 바카라 own OBC identity alongside the influence of OBC leaders like Shivraj Singh Chouhan or Uma Bharti always worked in favour of the party in the state. However, since the demands of caste census gained strength, BJP started losing its hold on this constituency, claims a senior Congress leader.바카라 웹사이트바카라 웹사이트

In this backdrop of multipolarities and multiplicities of issues and narratives, is one nation one election (ONOE) a useful ploy to sway바카라 웹사이트the nation through singular grand narrative? Research바카라 웹사이트shows that in simultaneous elections, there is a tendency among people to vote for the same party. But when state elections are held, the decisions vary.바카라 웹사이트바카라 웹사이트

The earlier round of assembly elections, including in Karnataka, didn't go well for BJP. Will the results of these five states turn its fortune? Will it be able to create another potential grand narrative that can stand either the emerging OBC politics or the welfarist push? The results will perhaps have an answer.바카라 웹사이트바카라 웹사이트