North Vs South: The Population Gap That Will Shape Delimitation

Delimitation, or the redrawing of parliamentary and assembly constituencies in line with changes in population, is dominating political discussions across the country as it creates a divide between the more populous northern states and the less populous southern states. 

The Constitution mandates that parliamentary seats be allocated based on population, with constituencies of roughly equal size. India redrew parliamentary seats three times based on the decennial census―in 1951, 1961 and 1971. As India라이브 바카라 population increased, so did the number of Lok Sabha seats: 

1951 Census: 494 seats (Population: 36.1 crore) 

1961 Census: 522 seats (Population: 43.9 crore) 

1971 Census: 543 seats (Population: 54.8 crore) 

Since 1971, governments have frozen seat reallocation to encourage population control measures. The freeze is ending in 2026, and fresh redrawing of constituencies is expected to begin soon after. 

In 1951, each Member of Parliament (MP) represented just over seven lakh people. Today, that number has risen to an average of 25 lakh per MP. Though the electorate size increased, the number of voters represented by each MP differs widely. For instance, in Uttar Pradesh (UP), each MP represents about 30 lakh citizens, while in Kerala, an MP represents roughly 17.5 lakh. 

Over the last five decades, India라이브 바카라 population has grown unevenly. Southern states reduced fertility rates faster due to socio-economic variables like higher economic growth and increased female education. Northern states make up 50 per cent of India라이브 바카라 population, while southern states make up just 20 per cent. If UP were an independent country, it would alone rank as the world라이브 바카라 fifth most populous country.

At present, key northern states―UP, Bihar, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh—hold 174 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats, while key southern states—Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka—hold 129 seats. If the total number of seats remains frozen at 543, projections indicate that northern states could gain significantly, increasing their share to 205 seats, while the representation of southern states could shrink to 103 seats. 

A look at population growth trends in key northern and southern states since 1991 shows that UP and Bihar have seen the largest population growth, while Kerala has the lowest. 

While India remains the world라이브 바카라 most populous country, its Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined from 2.2 according to the National Family Health Survey NFHS-4 (2015-16) to 2.0 children per woman, (NFHS-5) conducted in 2019-21. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) conducts the NFHS survey at an interval of about three years and has so far completed five rounds. 

Most northern states have a TFR at or above the replacement level (2.0), with Bihar recording the highest at 3.0. In contrast, all southern states have a TFR below the replacement level, with Kerala and Tamil Nadu having the lowest TFR at 1.8. 

For now, the southern leaders, joined by their counterparts in Punjab, are pushing for another extension of the freeze―this time for 30 more years. At a Joint Action Committee (JAC) meeting in Chennai on March 22, politicians from seven states demanded a fair approach to Lok Sabha seat allocation when it is taken up. They fear the exercise would give more power to northern states, popularly known as the Hindi-belt, or the Hindi-speaking region.