No Honeymoon Period For Friedrich Merz, The Next German Chancellor

When Angela Merkel took over the leadership of Germany라이브 바카라 Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party in 2002, one of the political casualties was the young and rising star Friedrich Merz. He, however, was patient. Familiar with the political culture of the conservative centre-right party, he knew that when the time came, he would be able to garner the support of the conservatives within the CDU who had become frustrated with Merkel라이브 바카라 moderate agenda. His patience has been vindicated, now that the CDU under his leadership has emerged on top in the snap general elections called after the Left-liberal coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz crumbled.

However, the Germany that Merz is set to inherit is one that has been trying hard to become independent: from China in trade, from the US in security, and from Russia in energy. The incoming chancellor faces mammoth tasks on the domestic front as well, including introducing stricter border controls, stabilising the economy, and keeping a resurgent hard-right at bay. His first task, however, is to provide the country with some form of stability that the voters have opted for after four rocky years. Merz is hoping to build a coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD)—whom he quite harshly belittled till a few hours before the election—at the earliest and assume the chancellorship around Easter.

The German voters substantially punished the outgoing Left-leaning ruling coalition of the SPD, the Greens (Die Grünen) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and voted for the conservatives. In the snap elections of February 23, which saw a record high voter turnout of 82.5 per cent, the CDU, under Merz, came out on top with 28.6 per cent of the votes, while the SPD hit a historical low at 16.4 per cent. The Greens are at 11.6 per cent, while the Liberals (FDP) didn’t cross the five per cent bar to enter the German Parliament. The two gamechangers, however, are the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 20.8 per cent, and the Left (Die Linke) at 8.8 per cent.

The AfD—known for its potent politics of conservative values, extreme isolationism and exclusivity—doesn’t have any partners in mainstream German politics. But a resounding electoral performance points to significant popular support, and the potential for disruption that it represents will certainly be a big challenge for the incoming government. The geographic pattern of voting has also drawn attention to an inner dichotomy of political preferences along the former East-West German border: the West voted for the CDU or at times the SPD, while the East largely preferred the AfD. Interestingly, mainstream parties like the CDU, SPD, and even the Greens failed to attract young voters below 25 in the way the AfD and the Left did. One of the reasons that has clearly contributed to their success is that both these parties on opposite sides of the political spectrum spoke extensively about issues that young voters care about: from migration and unemployment to affordable housing, security, financial stability and human rights. The failures of the coalition under Scholz, combined with the promise of change that the AfD and the Left seem to embody, have contributed to a fractured mandate that will make the pursuit of centrist politics quite challenging.

A key topic of debate in the run-up to the elections was the reform of the debt brake. The debt brake is enshrined in the German constitution and limits debt to 0.35 per cent of the GDP. Though it was temporarily suspended during the COVID pandemic and after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the limit on borrowing was reinstated in 2024. A reform of the debt brake is urgently needed to—first and foremost—invest in upgrading infrastructure and to finance an increasing defence spending. However, going by the division of seats in the incoming German Parliament, and the positions of the parties on the debt brake during the election campaign, it seems highly unlikely that the reform can be pushed through. A two-third majority in the parliament is required to change the debt brake. But the AfD and the Left, who together make up a little over one-third of the parliament, are not in favour of doing so. The Left is open to negotiating their position on the condition that the additional money goes primarily into infrastructural overhaul and not into defence. Meanwhile, the current government has offered to secure the necessary majority and pull off the reform while still in power.

Merz will also have to secure a stable and affordable energy solution for the German industry, which is still reeling from the massive increase in energy prices after the Russian aggression in Ukraine. Additionally, he will have to enable heavy investments, both public and private, to help the German industry build its capacity to stay relevant in the international market. He has also been a vocal supporter of reintroducing the sale of petrol and diesel cars, which are supposed to be phased out by 2035, according to a European Union regulation. This may bring some relief to the automobile industry which is under massive pressure trying to keep up with China in the field of electromobility and innovation.

The recent attacks by two refugees from Afghanistan and Syria on civilians in Aschaffenburg and Munich respectively just before the elections had made the campaigning all about migration. In January, Merz had faced heavy criticism for breaching the firewall on working with the AfD after he got a motion passed in the parliament on stricter immigration policies with the extremely anti-immigrant party라이브 바카라 support. However, since the election results, he has consistently rejected the AfD라이브 바카라 offer to enter into coalition talks. It remains to be seen how far he will go on his planned reforms, especially since some forms of stricter border controls are already in place and have significantly reduced the number of undocumented migrants or refugees coming in. Also, many border and migration issues also need to be negotiated and finalised at a European level and cannot be singlehandedly decided by Germany.

A transatlantic at heart, Merz will have to deal with an unpredictable White House. In order to continue supporting Ukraine, while building a solid line of defence against Russia, he will have to take strong positions that might irk US President Donald Trump. The hope is that Merz will provide a sturdy leadership for Europe and urgently help design a joint European security architecture that has the strength to survive in the absence or a significant reduction of US engagement in Europe.

Considering the bouquet of political challenges that Merz is staring at, his government may not have the bandwidth to pursue a broader foreign policy that goes beyond the US and Europe. However, Merz has expressed a wish to invite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Germany despite the arrest warrant against him from the International Criminal Court. If such a visit happens, it will not only have foreign policy implications for Germany, but also end up polarising German society more.

(Views expressed are personal)

Pradnya Bivalkar is based in Berlin and studies India-Germany relations