SHORTLY after Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda boarded his special aircraft at the conclusion of his two-day official visit to Dhaka, questions were being asked as to what concrete results it had achieved.
On the surface, the visit does not seem to have accomplished much except for the two countries agreeing to promote the customary "bilateral ties and forge greater understanding". Both sides had emphasised that the visit was to be a goodwill one and not intended to produce any agreements.
Yet, the visit generated a lot of interest, mainly for two reasons: this was the first bilateral visit by an Indian Prime Minister in many years, and it raised speculation about whether New Delhi would ask for a quid pro quo for the Ganga water treaty. The speculation came in the wake of the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) charging Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina with making a secret deal that led to the reversal of the Indian attitude on the long-festering issue. This alleged deal concerned the granting of transit facilities to India to the North-east through Bangladesh.
But to the surprise of Bangladesh officials, Gowda made no direct mention of the transit issue during official talks. "I was surprised he didn't raise the matter directly," said a Bangladesh official. Indirectly though, he said, the matter was raised in the context of boosting bilateral trade but it did not reflect any urgency on India's part. New Delhi, according to an official source, however, did ask for Bangladesh's cooperation in curbing cross-border insurgency. The continuing unrest in the North-east and the recent blowing up of a passenger train in Assam has prompted New Delhi to give the matter top priority. In talks with his counterpart Rafiqul Islam, Indian Home Minister Indrajit Gupta reportedly sought direct cooperation of Bangladesh security forces in crushing the insurgency. Dhaka apparently has agreed to the proposal as it would also help tackle the insurgency in the Chitta-gong hill tracts where tribal guerrillas allegedly carry out operations from their hideouts in the Indian border state of Tripura.
South Block officials in New Delhi said the visit was essentially political in nature though an observer described it as a non-visit, saying not all issues of India's concern were raised. But it satisfied a long-standing demand from Dhaka that the Indian Prime Minister pay a bilateral visit to the country and not just to attend some summit.
However, India did raise the issue of the creation of a free trade area within 16 km on either side of the border. This caused some unease in Bangladesh circles. When Commerce Minister Tofael Ahmed appeared ambivalent about his government's decision, he was reportedly told by External Affairs Minister I.K. Guj-ral that India would put on hold its decision to grant tariff and non-tariff concessions to Bangladesh unless a defi-nite time limit was set. India has offered tariff concessions to Bangladesh on 500 items effective from March 1. But it is the issue of creating a sub-regional grouping consisting of India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan that has raised the hackles of the opposition. Former prime minister and BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia called it a conspiracy to undermine SAARC and make Bangladesh a vassal state.
But, said Kaiser Morshed, former foreign secretary and chairman of the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies, referring to the sub-regional grouping: "I don't think India has mooted the idea. As far as I know it came from the ESCAP and some other non-government organisa-tions a few months ago and it was purely intended to bolster trade and economic activities among the four countries." The BNP and its leaders, including Khaleda Zia, appeared to have taken a stand against the visit from the very beginning. They boycotted all official functions arranged for Gowda and his entourage.
Apart from the BNP's negative stand, Gowda's visit has generally been welcomed as the beginning of a new era in Indo-Bangladesh relations. "I think the visit went off well," said Prof. Wahiduddin Mahmud, a leading economist who also served as the finance and planning adviser under the caretaker government. "The present government in Delhi is sincere and there's no reason to suspect its bona fides," he said, referring indirectly to the transit issue which he believes would be ultimately beneficial for Bangladesh. But observers say unless there is a national consensus on these issues, it would be difficult for the ruling Awami League to make any concessions independently.
