PAKISTAN seems set for an extended stint of uncertainty. For it is now clear that the February 3 elections are unlikely to resolve the political crisis sparked off by the sacking of Benazir Bhuttos government last November. Whoever is elected prime minister is bound to have a tough political battle on his hands; and that too on various fronts.
Making matters worse are fears that the elections may not be free and fair. Benazir has already said her party will take a decision to either accept or reject the poll results only after they are announced. She had refused to accept the results of the 1990 elections which brought Nawaz Sharif to power and for three years she protested against the government. On his part, Tehrik - i - Insaf chief Imran Khan has already accused the caretaker government of Malik Meraj Khalid of aligning with Sharif.
The Jamaat-i-Islami, which is boycotting the polls, will continue its movement demanding that the "accountability" process should be carried out properly. It argues that without a ruthless accountability process, in which the corrupt are punished, there is no point in electing a Parliament in which the same old faces will reappear. And if past experience is anything to go by, the Jamaat may just come out on the streets to drive home its point.
Ameerul-Azeem, central information secretary of the Jamaat-i-Islami, says that the post-election scenario can only be described as falling from the frying pan into the fire . "What can you expect?" he asks. "The polarisation is so intense. Benazir wont accept Sharifs government and Sharif wont accept her government because they both have the same policies, both loot the country. "
In addition to the prospect of these parties launching an agitation, what has really set people thinking about the post-election situation are the numerous amendments to the Representation of Peoples Act. Under the latest amendment announced on January 27, an election tribunal headed by a high court judge can "direct that the result of the returned candidate shall not be published in the official gazette" if there is sufficient evidence that he has defaulted on payment of loans, taxes, government dues or utility service charges. Complaints against a winning candidate can be filed soon after the announcement of results.
This opens up the possibility of many results being withheld. Najam Sethi, advisor to the Pakistan President, said that of the several thousand candidates in the elections, nearly 500, including some prominent ones, could face disqualification. That could lead to a serious impasse. Says I.A. Rehman, columnist and director of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan: "This amendment could affect the transfer of power. If you withhold the notification of 20 members, it can create problems for someone trying to form a government."
Says Sheikh Rafique Ahmed, secretary - general of the Pakistan Peoples Party (P P P): "The caretakers are trying to elect a rump parliament. The Jamaat is boycotting the polls, Imran is unhappy and if the P P P rejects the results, the new government wont have the confidence of the people."
Adding to these doubts are statements emanating from the caretaker government. Information Minister Irshad Ahmed Haqqani told journalists in Islamabad a few days ago that the transfer of power to the elected government could take as long as two months. While few would take this statement seriously, it is symptomatic of the confusion prevailing in Pakistan.
The party which stands to lose the most on account of this confusion is the one which comes to power; and Sharifs Pakistan바카라 웹사이트 Muslim League (P M L) seems to be the front runner in this race. P M L leaders are unable to say clearly how the accountability process will go through . They are certain that they will come to power and are not willing to concede that they will have problems after the elections.
But talk to some of their sympathisers privately, and these doubts emerge quite clearly. They are not sure whether Sharif, if elected, will have the flexibility and freedom to manage the finance portfolio with the I M F conditionalities hanging over the country. Rumours abound that as Benazir had to retain Sahibzada Yaqub Khan as foreign minister in 1988 (he was Zia-ul-Haqs foreign minister also), Pakistans next prime minister may have to retain the foreign and finance ministers of the caretaker regime.
However, the P M Ls first priority is coming to power. Party leaders have unequivocally welcomed the Supreme Court decision upholding the dismissal of Benazir Bhuttos government, ignoring the implications of the judgement. As Sharif told journalists: "The judgement was based on facts. Benazir had to pay for what she did in power. "
There is no gainsaying the fact that the judgement is going to make the presidents office more powerful. The court has held that it is not necessary that evidence in support of the grounds for dissolution be available in full when the president dissolves the assembly. It held that press clippings can be relied upon in this regard.
As the English daily Dawn editorialised: "These rulings again can only strengthen the hands of the president if he wishes to act against an elected government. This is not a happy development for those who believe in the parliamentary system of government." Concurs Imtiaz Alam, senior editor of The New s: "The Supreme Court has almost reversed the clock on parliamentary democracy." But Sharif does not agree: "It is irrelevant if it strengthens the president."
Then there is the recently constituted Council for Defence and National Security (C D N S), which will restrict any civilian prime ministers powers. Though Sharif told journalists that he would review its continuance, his party had initially welcomed its formation. Despite calls from academics, politicians and the press, it is unlikely that any civilian prime minister can successfully disband this body. Its advice, as a columnist commented, will become "binding advice".
So no matter who comes to power, the Eighth Amendment, the CDNS, the long overdue accountability process and an agitated Opposition will stand in the way of the formation of a strong government. And the sufferer, no doubt, will be Pakistans fledgling democracy.바카라 웹사이트
