Taliban Targets The Northlands

So much so that even winter did not bring the usual respite. Exploiting their opponents’ unpreparedness in the 1996-97 winter on account of the cold and heavy snowfall, the Taliban inflicted heavy military defeats on the Ahmad Shah Masood-Rasheed Dostum-Karim Khalili combine north of Kabul. After overrunning rival positions in Parwan and Kapisa provinces and capturing the provincial capitals, Cha-rikar and Mahmud-i-Raqi, as well as the strategic Bagram airbase, the Taliban are poised to storm the Shibar Pass to march into Baghlan and Bamian provinces.

The Taliban foray into northern Afghanistan could have been swifter, had Dostum’s retreating forces not blocked entry to the Russian-built Salang Tunnel across the Hindu Kush mountain ranges by dynamiting the hillside. Dostum’s troops are now deployed at the northern mouth of the Salang Tunnel, having got a crucial reprieve to reinforce and redeploy because the Taliban have to take a time-consuming detour through harsh mountainous terrain.

The indomitable spirit of the Afghan people is much in evidence nowadays at the Salang Pass as they walk across the mountains, often with their belongings, to cover the stretch of the blown-up road. Public transport is available at both sides of the divide to pick up weary travellers after a few hours of tough walking in the mine-infested mountains.

With Nauroz (new year) only a month away, the Afghans have little to cheer about. Talk of peace has been drowned by cries of revenge and more war. The Taliban, having declared jehad (holy war) against an ‘infidel’ and ‘communist’ like Dostum, are unwilling to strike a deal with a man who they believe is almost finished. "Until now, Dos-tum benefited by hiding behind different Afghan mujahideen groups and conspiring to make them fight among themselves. For the first time our Muslim Taliban forces are face to face with his communist militia," argued leading Taliban military commander Mulla Jalaluddin Haqqani in a recent speech on Radio Kabul.

The UN peace mission for Afghanistan, which over the years has never really been able to achieve a breakthrough in its dogged efforts to restore a durable peace in the war-ravaged country, has announced plans for the second round of talks between the Taliban and the opposition coalition in Islamabad next week. The first round of talks, attended by three representatives each from the Taliban and the Dos-tum-led Supreme Council for the Defence of Afghanistan, were bogged down when the opposition demanded demilitarisation of Taliban-held Kabul.

Meanwhile, neighbouring countries find themselves increasingly drawn into the conflict. Alarmed by the prospect of a Taliban takeover of the whole country, Iran has openly offered support to the anti-Taliban alliance. It was recently reported that finan-cial backing by Tehran led to a spectacular increase in the value of the Afghan currency used by Dostum. Iran was reportedly behind the massive influx of dollars in Mazar-i-Sharif, Dostum’s headquarters, to stem the nosedive of his rapidly deteriorating Afghani. Western travellers from Mazar-i-Sharif told the press that the Afghani, which was available for about 120,000 to the dollar, had improved to around 18,000 after a huge Afghani buying operation by a Dostum bank. (In Taliban-controlled Kabul, the Afghani trades at 22,000 to the dollar.) According to Western media reports, Iran also airlifted food supplies to Mazar-i-Sharif. Together with Russia, Iran was also reported to have donated arms and ammunition to the anti-Taliban alliance. Moscow had already made known its concern over the Taliban’s advance towards northern Afghanistan and called a meeting of Central Asian heads of state in Almaty to discuss the threat.

India has been watching the Taliban advances with great interest and some trepidation. While New Delhi has been in touch with Masood and Rabbani, it still appears to be groping for a well formulated policy. Iran and India have been coordinating their efforts though Tehran is unhappy with a relatively nonaggressive Indian approach to Afghanistan. These two countries believe that the Taliban, with the help of a huge amount of Saudi Arabian money, have been buying off rival commanders.

Emboldened by promises of outside support, Dostum warned the Taliban not to cross the Salang as it would amount to a declaration of war. However, his forces which joined Masood’s men to defeat the Taliban in early winter and roll back the Taliban advance back to Kabul’s suburbs, are now at the receiving end. Dostum’s troops too have retreated to the northern opening of Salang Tunnel while Masood has again holed himself up in his native Panjsher Valley. It was the second time in about four months that the Taliban reached the mouth of Panjsher Valley, around 90 km from Kabul. Masood himself was reportedly considering shifting his military headquarters to Andarab in Baghlan province in northern Afghanistan.

For its part, Pakistan will have to make tough choices now that an elected government led by Nawaz Sharif has been sworn in. During Benazir Bhutto’s second stint, ties with the ousted Rabbani government deteriorated beyond repair and the Pakistan embassy was attacked and burnt by a mob protesting Islamabad’s support to the Taliban. During Bhutto’s first stint (1988-90), Moscow withdrew its troops from Afghanistan and the Afghan mujahideen, backed by the ISI and the CIA, failed to capture Jalalabad in eastern Afghanistan in their first attempt at conventional warfare.

Sharif was critical of Benazir’s Afghan policy while in the opposition, blaming her for the deterioration in Islamabad’s ties with Iran. Some of his advisers are also unhappy with Pakistan’s identification with the Taliban. Sharif has hinted at reviewing the country’s Afghan policy. But analysts say all policy options are reviewed in conjunction with the other pillars of the Pakistani establishment, mainly the armed forces. Until then, for the Afghans, it’s war as usual.