Ayesha Siddiqa is a research associate at SOAS, London. 바카라 웹사이트A Ph.D. in War Studies from King라이브 바카라 College London, she is the author of two books including internationally acclaimed ‘Military Inc. Inside Pakistan's Military Economy’.바카라 웹사이트바카라 웹사이트 Siddiqa is the first civilian and first female to have served as the director of naval research with the Pakistan Navy.바카라 웹사이트 She previously served as the inaugural Pakistan Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center between 2004 and 2005.바카라 웹사이트 Considered foremost authority on Pak, she speaks to 바카라 about the impact of Taliban taking over Kabul and how it will have an effect on the region. Excerpts:
바카라 웹사이트Q. Were you surprised by pace of Taliban (TB) taking over Kabul? Were you anticipating it?바카라 웹사이트
I think the pace was a surprise, because a lot of things were happening in the region and Afghanistan. Pace is not determined by one factor. There are a host of factors like what was the assessment of govt? What was its relationship or what kind of support or understanding was given?바카라 웹사이트 What was the planning of the US? There were a number of factors which were responsible for the pace of Taliban or the collapse of Kabul.바카라 웹사이트 Therefore, if you didn't have perfect set of information you would be surprised with the pace and collapse.
Q. Was it wrong planning or intelligence that failed the US resulting in Taliban taking over Kabul so quickly?
I think there was an incorrect assumption by the US about Taliban being more cooperative and that peace will follow. That assumption was incorrect from the day one.바카라 웹사이트 I think it all started the day the US agreed to release 5,000 Talibanis. 바카라 웹사이트바카라 웹사이트It was like the US adding to Taliban라이브 바카라 power itself. So, once they started, there was no stopping. How will you stop them? 바카라 웹사이트And there was too much expectation from a force, the Afghan Army, which was divided and didn't have the required strength. Our calculation is that there was 3.5Lakh Afghan army, which is factually incorrect. The latest figures tell their strength was about 50,000 and the local police too.바카라 웹사이트 When the withdrawal started, the governance structure was not there. So, multiple factors resulted in the collapse of Government.바카라 웹사이트
Q. Can we squarely blame the US for the present situation or there were other factors too?
Can you ever blame only one factor for this kind of disaster?바카라 웹사이트 Definitely there was bad planning from the day one. 바카라 웹사이트It was US fault to negotiate with Taliban like this. There were errors in US planning and their understanding. They kind of believed what Pindi- 바카라 웹사이트It's a shorter version of Rawalpindi where Pakistan Army's General Headquarters (GHQ) is바카라 웹사이트 based -바카라 웹사이트 was telling them that Taliban are willing to change . They went on a wrong assumption that Taliban will not fight and compromise on their ideological formula or formula of power. They never did.
Q. What you make of Pak PM Imran Khan's statement that Afghanistan has broken the "shackles"?
What he is probably saying is expressing an assumption that no outside power has been tolerated or would be allowed to rule Afghanistan. So, the understanding of Imran and Pak generals' is that Afghanistan has defeated UK, USSR and now the US and would now govern themselves. But, if you want to probe more, Imran Khan's 바카라 웹사이트statement, his understanding of Taliban and other Mujaheedens 바카라 웹사이트is that the US should not have entered Afghanistan and when it did it should have left.
Q. Many believe Pak agreed to hold ceasefire agreement along LoC with India as it's wary about developments along Pak-Afghan border. Is Pak Army worried about development?
Where is the evidence of their worry? In broader concept, they would바카라 웹사이트 be concerned about the situation in Afghanistan. Taliban is a large network with division. One can't claim it has a centralised network as it did earlier in '90s바카라 웹사이트 when Mullah Umar headed it like a central figure. After more than a decade바카라 웹사이트 , now there are several groups.바카라 웹사이트 So, yes, Mr Bajwa (Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa) would be concerned.바카라 웹사이트 Tactically, there is no worry for Pakistan. Strategically, there is worrying development, but that is for politicians, not the General.
바카라 웹사이트There is worry in Pak that radicalism of Taliban will have spill over effect there. 바카라 웹사이트Some reports and videos have surfaced suggesting바카라 웹사이트 pro-Taliban slogans being raised in Khyber Phaktunkhawa
See, had Pakistan been so concerned it wouldn't have marketed Taliban so much. Pak has invested heavily in it. It wants to have an inclusive government headed by Taliban, which I believe is oxymoron.바카라 웹사이트 You can't have broad based government in Afghanistan led by Taliban . Their (Pak) worry is to have 바카라 웹사이트a government which looks inclusive.바카라 웹사이트 But, the larger worry would be political opposition which is sitting in Panjsheer valley and other heights. 바카라 웹사이트So, it emerges there would be civil war and if that happens, that would be a concern for generals (Pak generals). They are not wary of Taliban taking control of Kabul but civil war in Afghanistan. These are two different things.
Q In Panjsheer anti-Taliban forces have got control of the areas. Taliban has sent its cadre there, Is Afghanistan heading towards a civil war?
Of course, there is a possibility of civil war. If opposition remains in Panjsheer, if Amrullah Saleh- Afghanistan's Vice-President, continues to fight, there will be a civil war.바카라 웹사이트 There will be divisions.
Q: So in your assessment civil war in Afghanistan is the most worrying factor for 바카라 웹사이트Pak Army?
Yes, civil war is a worrying factor. What you have imagined is an inclusive govt led by Taliban. Nothing is decided as yet. Technically, according to UN document, Asharaf Ghani is still the president and these are facts. Taliban is in Kabul but haven't yet been able to form the government. By the time they form the govt, when things shape up, there would be a lot of chaos that is what would worry the Pak generals.
Q. India is deeply worried about the developments. What are its options and how it can go about from now on?
India doesn't have much options. Taliban is controlling Kabul so India has to talk to them. Taliban had said they are ready to talk . India will have to talk whosoever is in power in Kabul and Taliban are a major power centre. I am sure India are having conversation. India should also be talking to and seeing what are the areas of cooperation with opposition in Panjhsheer. I think this is what India will be doing.바카라 웹사이트 If it puts all its eggs in Taliban basket it would be dangerous.
Q. Taliban is giving an impression that they are a "changed" lot. Is it so?
It would be absolutely flawed to think of Taliban as a source of integrating Afghanistan, a source of bringing social justice and peace to Afghanistan. They are divided and are violent as well. We are looking at new Taliban- one with greater experience of war and greater pragmatism. So, they will speak but it doesn't mean they will drop their ideology. Anyone who is looking at Taliban should be very careful in not confusing pragmatism with liberalism. Taliban are ready to talks, which means they can't fight the way they did in '90s.바카라 웹사이트 In 1990s they were a new force. But, that shouldn't be confused with greater capacity to engage with liberal- secular force. No, that is not there and it's not going to happen.
Q. In case India holds talks with Taliban will these be dictated by GHQ or it will be independent of it?
See it's very confusing.바카라 웹사이트 They have been partners (Pak Army and Taliban)바카라 웹사이트 for so long and would be able to appreciate each other's interest.바카라 웹사이트 I don't think Pindi believes it can run day to day rule of the Taliban, but 바카라 웹사이트there would be good appreciation of each other라이브 바카라 interests. Also, the issue is who is India talking to?바카라 웹사이트 Mullah Baradar may be heading this interim government but not necessarily the man who has tight control of Taliban as Mullah Umar used to have. One doesn't know who is India talking to.바카라 웹사이트
Q. Another worrying point is that terrorist outfit Jaish-e-Mohmaad (JeM) has been fighting along with Taliban . Will Taliban let JeM바카라 웹사이트바카라 웹사이트 increase its terrorist activities in Kashmir? How do you foresee the situation unfolding?
See, one is beginning to hear chatter about excitement. People are talking about it. Let라이브 바카라 not forget that Taliban coming to power is perceived, and rightly so, as US바카라 웹사이트 defeat, it will encourage바카라 웹사이트 militancy in general. Even if again GHQ doesn't control every minute of militant activities, militants cadre are alive and functional and would want to increase militant activities. They are already saying if they can defeat US and USSR then what is India? India is much smaller in comparison to them.
So in your assessment militant activities in Kashmir would increase ?
It would definitely have an impact. And, perhaps GHQ would want to be in a position where people in Kashmir get excited and groups in Kashmir make their own calculations. The failure of GHQ until now is that while India revoked Art 370 and Art 35A, there was no fighting. It could sit back and watch how Kashmiris react to it.
Another point for India is that China holding talks with Taliban. 바카라 웹사이트Pak is already involved, so how problematic and worrisome should be emerging Pak-Taliban-China axis?
바카라 웹사이트Every region in the country바카라 웹사이트 has to worry. China바카라 웹사이트 has its worries about Taliban, leave alone Taliban power let loose on India. Entire region is going to get stuck in Taliban problem. China is keeping silent. Russians seem to be siding with the Pak version.바카라 웹사이트 바카라 웹사이트My argument is that if in next 6 months or a year, Taliban is successful in demonstrating that it can have a govt which works,바카라 웹사이트 then we are looking at phenomena which should be worrying Pakistan.바카라 웹사이트 Then there would be demand for more Islamic kind of government in Pakistan. So, Pakistan needs to worry, China needs to worry. Then what you have is the emergence of a stronger religion-based block. There would be Pakistan, Afghanistan and바카라 웹사이트 Turkey. So, we are looking at emergence of new phenomena which will not entirely take diction from China. It will like Chinese resources but not its influence.
Q India-China relations are already strained. Will China use Taliban against India?
It's not that China would be able to use Taliban against India, but with Taliban바카라 웹사이트 in power the free hand that India had earlier there is gone and that is a major issue.바카라 웹사이트 The advantage India had in reaching to Central Asian republics through friendly Afghan government is gone. Have we arrived at a point where China will dominate? I don't think so.바카라 웹사이트 There is a lot of working and sorting out of things that needs to be done.
Q Taliban said바카라 웹사이트 it 바카라 웹사이트would govern as per Sharia and local customs, so in this context how worrisome will be 바카라 웹사이트the situation for females and minorities? 바카라 웹사이트
Taliban in power is like an abusive marriage, they will want you to believe that they will not beat you up. They will start with few slaps here and more serious abuse some other time.바카라 웹사이트 We are not seeing a very promising future for minorities and women, whatever they may say. 바카라 웹사이트Already there are death squads, people are being punished, the situation is not normal.바카라 웹사이트 I am worried about its impact on Pakistan.바카라 웹사이트 Let us face it, Taliban is going to have major impact in the entire region.바카라 웹사이트 The world has tolerated and seen the Mullah regime in Iran, which wasn't nice and continues to바카라 웹사이트 be threatening . But, the reason we tolerated is that it has semblance of modern state and society.바카라 웹사이트 Afghanistan is not modern state and society, the modern part is running away, it's escaping.
