FOR years, international defence experts have been reporting Chinese activity in Myanmar, particularly on the Great Coco Island, just 20 nautical miles from the northern tip of the Andamans. The rapidly growing Chinese presence in Myanmar, which started after the military regime assumed power in Rangoon in 1989, has lent credence to Indian fears that China plans to "encircle" India strategically.
바카라 웹사이트"China라이브 바카라 aim is to have a strategic outpost in the Indian Ocean. Encircling India is its grand strategy," asserts Maj. Gen. Y.K. Gera, deputy director of the United Services Institution. Of immediate concern to India is the presence of four Chinese radar bases at Man-Aung Island off the Arakhan coast, Hainggyi Island near the mouth of the Bassein (Pathein) river, Great Coco Island, and Za Det Kyi Island (also known as St. Matthew라이브 바카라 Island). The St. Matthew라이브 바카라 Island base, the biggest of the four, also has a direct satellite link with China. In addition, there has been an increased Chinese naval presence off the Myanmar coast, according to Asian diplomats. There is also concern over a deep-sea port under construction at Kyauk Phyu, Ramree Island off the Arakhan coast, ostensibly to provide an Indian Ocean port for Chinese exports.
China, of course, categorically denies that it has anything to do with the Coco Islands. Only, the facts speak otherwise. There are obvious reasons why China would want an Indian Ocean port for trade—the most important being that this would halve its shipping costs to Europe. But since India라이브 바카라 military is second in Asia only to China라이브 바카라, Beijing would obviously also like to keep an eye on its only serious regional rival.
Besides the sea route, China is also serious about building road links with Myanmar. A road has been built from China라이브 바카라 Yunnan province to Bhamo in Myanmar, from which the Irrawaddy river is navigable to all points south. At the south end of the Irrawaddy, a road is being upgraded from Minhla (north of Prome or Pyay) to the town of An on the Arakhan (Rakhine) coast, and a causeway is to be constructed to Kyauk Phyu harbour.
Minhla라이브 바카라 proximity to important military installations and arms and ordnance factories in Myanmar raises concern that planned new weapons plants surveyed by Chinese engineers in 1994 might be made operational. The port has naval potential and is seen as a long-term security threat to India. According to one Asian military analyst, the water in the area is deep and capable of hiding submarines.
In a related development in March 1997, a 30-year fishing lease was signed, allowing 225 Chinese fishing boats to trawl in Myanmar라이브 바카라 waters. China has traditionally used fishing boats as a cover for intelligence gathering in the past. Dr Swaran Singh of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) points out that in November 1994, the Indian Coast Guard intercepted a trawler equipped with sophisticated electronic surveillance equipment. Heeding China라이브 바카라 appeal not to make the issue an international one, India downplayed the incident. Two months later, in January 1995, New Delhi signed a deal with China for the supply of enriched uranium. Singh, however, points out that the threat should not be seen solely in the naval perspective, since the proliferation in small arms, drug production and money laundering in the region has a direct long-term impact on India라이브 바카라 northeastern states.
Chinese technical and training staff, around 400, have been present in Myanmar since the early ’90s, and hundreds of Myanmar라이브 바카라 military personnel are known to have trained in China over the last six years. Since 1988, the vast majority of Myanmar라이브 바카라 military imports have come from China, largely because only China was willing to provide it with soft loans. According to military analysts, China has assisted Myanmar in developing new infantry machine guns and automatic rifles to be manufactured in Myanmar.
India apart, other neighbours are also concerned at these developments. Since 1995, Singapore has been operating twice-weekly surveillance flights over Myanmar라이브 바카라 coast, using C-130s and Fokker F-50s equipped with signals intelligence gear.
Jane라이브 바카라 Defence Weekly said in January 1994 that "a signals intelligence station has been established on Great Coco Island, but it is unclear whether the facility is controlled by Rangoon or Beijing." The report revealed the construction of a 50-metre tower on the isolated island. It quoted Chinese sources as saying that work on the island had begun two years before "with Chinese technicians installing Chinese-supplied equipment". The signals station "is thought to cover the Andamans facilities together with shipping in the Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Malacca Strait," the Weekly reported. The station will monitor communications in these areas and later may also monitor Indian missile tests, it said.
The International Defence Review reported later the same year that the 50-metre antenna for signals intelligence had been detected by US satellites. "The suspicion that this new equipment was likely to be operated at least in part by Chinese technicians led to fears that Beijing라이브 바카라 intelligence agencies would monitor this sensitive region." The intelligence station could observe India라이브 바카라 missile tests at Chandipur-on-Sea, the journal said, and that India made several diplomatic protests to Myanmar over this.
But a 1995 article in Jane라이브 바카라 Intelligence Review said there was no conclusive proof of an intelligence station on Coco Island. A monitoring station from mainland Myanmar would be more useful to China, it said. The article spoke of Indian reports that "China already conducts electronic and other surveillance in the Indian Ocean from trawlers of the kind captured in the Bay of Bengal."
Jane라이브 바카라 Intelligence Review reported last year that "Chinese strategic literature continues to list India as one of China라이브 바카라 most likely opponents in regional conflicts." It referred to the remark in 1993 by a senior officer of China라이브 바카라 People라이브 바카라 Liberation Army and director of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences that China cannot accept "India라이브 바카라 naval expansion and that ‘we are not prepared to let the Indian Ocean become India라이브 바카라 Ocean’." It said that "strategic alliances with Pakistan in the southwest and Myanmar in the southeast thus constitute the linchpin of Beijing라이브 바카라 strategy."
Myanmar라이브 바카라 coast is 1,930 km long and includes 852 islands. According to a paper of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre in Canberra, Myanmar claims a territorial sea of 12 nautical miles, a contiguous zone of 24 nautical miles and an exclusive economic zone of 200 nautical miles.That makes for a legitimate Myanmarese presence in waters very close to the Andamans. But the paper also says that the Myanmar government may not permit the Chinese the unlimited access they want.
바카라 웹사이트India라이브 바카라 relations with Myanmar deteriorated simultaneously following strong criticism of the military junta, though there are reports of attempts to improve relations following a visit by former foreign secretary J.N. Dixit. But reports in defence journals speak of a closer relationship between Myanmar and Pakistan, with the exchange of several defence missions, and unconfirmed reports of supply of Pakistani arms and ammunition to Myanmar.
Most US experts, however, scoffed at the notion that China was "encircling" India strategically. "There is almost nothing serious in these suspicions. As far as I know and the US government knows, the facilities that the Chinese have helped to build in the Coco islands are relatively small-scale and not designed for long-range radar interception. They are not designed to serve major Chinese ships," said Paul Kreisberg of the Woodrow Wilson Institute. But a State Department expert on China felt that there were more chances of an Indo-China row over the border issue, since it would take years for China to have the capability to move into the Indian Ocean. If the Chinese could not make a serious threat to Taiwan, they would hardly be likely to do so in the Andamans, says a Congressional source.
바카라 웹사이트Sumit Ganguly of New York라이브 바카라 City University has the last word. He agrees with George Fernandes’ assertion that China is a threat to India and is happy that "someone has shown some spine and spoken out against the Chinese and put them on notice."
With Sanjay Suri, Ludwina Joseph and Ramananda Sengupta
