It was the Taliban's worst reverse since their emergence in Spin Buldak in southern Afghanistan two-and-a-half years ago. The student militia's retreat from northern Afghanistan was as dramatic as their triumphant march beyond the Hindu Kush, which serves as a natural divide between the predominantly ethnic Pushtoons in eastern and southern Afghanistan and their Uzbek, Tajik and Turkmen countrymen living along the 2,000-km-long borders with the Central Asian republics of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The Taliban are believed to have lost close to a thousand of their fighters, with another couple of thousand ending up in the captivity of their allies-turned-enemies, Uzbek General Abdul Malik and his supporters.
Attempts by the Taliban to put up a bold face by sending fresh reinforcements to avenge the betrayal by their hosts in Mazar-i-Sharif ran into snags as troops loyal to former defence minister Ahmad Shah Masood waylaid them at the strategic Salang Highway (the main supply route linking Kabul with the north), re-established control in his native Jablus Siraj and Gulbahar townships, only 70 km to the north of the Afghan capital. About 3,000 Taliban are now trapped in Pul-i-Khumri, capital of Baghlan, with the opposition forces besieging them from all sides.
The Taliban are sending out mixed signals, oscillating between conciliation and bellicosity. Reiterating the spirit of the pledges between the friends-turned-foes, the Taliban's information minister, Mulla Amir Khan Muttaqi, tried to put up a bold face saying his side was ready to negotiate with Malik. His call for a truce was followed by another message, to let bygones be bygones, from the Taliban headquarters in Kandahar.
But as pressure increased north of Kabul and further north in Baghlan, the Taliban-appointed Amirul Mo'mineen (religious chief), Mulla Muhammad Omar Akhund, issued a religious decree, calling upon all the Afghan Muslims to rise to the occasion and take up arms to defend the integrity of their country. Thousands of volunteers have since left religious schools in Pakistan, heading for the frontlines. Summer vacations are at hand and reports suggest that the Taliban are rushing fresh reinforcement to the frontlines to consolidate their positions and prepare for an all-out offensive on Mazar-i-Sharif. "Some of these boys are too young to be sent to the battlefields." Said an elder from Afghanistan's Paktia province. The Taliban say only those with battle experience would be sent to the frontlines, the rest being assigned other duties.
But tension is telling on the Taliban. The order to close down the Iranian embassy in Kabul last week betrayed their anxiety. Tehran's relations with the Taliban have never been cordial. The Taliban have always accused Iran of meddling in Afghanistan's internal affairs by providing arms and logistic support to opposition forces.
In fact, Pakistan's support to the Taliban has put Islamabad and Tehran poles apart on the question of how to settle, once and for all, the 17-year-old Afghan imbroglio. Also, Islamabad's decision to recognise the Taliban as the legitimate rules of Afghanistan, which critics of Pakistan's Afghan policy believe was made in haste, was not supported by any of Afghanistan's other neighbours, making Pakistan almost an outcaste in the region. Many of these neighbours accuse Pakistan of sustaining and arming the Taliban.
With Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the other two states to recognise the Taliban, the US, the principal backer of the Afghan jehad, and its European allies have adopted a wait-and-watch policy, mainly on account of Taliban's strict enforcement of their version of Islamic laws and their views on women's rights. Not that the Taliban seem to care. "We don't care about anybody as long as the religion of Allah is maintained," claims Kandahar Governor Mulla Mohammad Hassain.
IN sharp contrast, Afghanistan's other immediate neighbours, the Muslim Central Asian republics, are very worried. spearheaded by Russia, the Commonwealth of Independent States warned the Taliban that "very tough and effective actions" would be taken if the Taliban ventured beyond the River Oxus, the natural divide between Afghanistan and the Central Asian republics. Russia, critics say, is capitalising on the fears in Central Asia to justify the deployment of 25,000 troops in what Moscow calls near-abroad. Moscow's decision to send 10 battalions to Bishkek, even though Kyrghyzstan does not share a border with Afghanistan is seen in this context.
Indeed, many analysts here strongly believe that the Taliban's Mazar-i-Sharif debacle was a trap laid by former Soviet sympathisers, who on Russian prodding plotted to overthrow General Rashid Dastum once he fell out of favour and lost his grip over the north. The schemers, cynics claim, killed two birds with one stone: getting rid and Dostum and also doing away with the Taliban threat, at least for now. "There is only a change of guard in Mazar-i-Sharif, little else has changed," says a former Dostum aide in Islamabad.
Despite Islamabad's claim that channels of communication between Malik and the Taliban leadership were still open, the two sides have confirmed that negotiations collapsed the day the 15-hour-long battle for the control of Mazar-i-Sarif ended. The Taliban were stranded as the opposition rallied their support and launched what appeared to be co-ordinated attacks on the student militia. It was in this confusion that the Taliban's foreign minister Mulla Muhammad Ghaus, along with Mulla Abdul Razzaq, the governor of Heart, who was shifted as the political and military head of northern Afghanistan, were taken hostage.
Military analysts believe that the Taliban cold be in for more trouble and the situation may drift towards a stand-off unless the student militia reopens the strategic Salang Highway and ensures smooth and uninterrupted backup from Kabul. As the two sides move towards another round of bloody conflict, talk of political settlement has faded into thin air. The anti-Taliban factions have cobbled together what has been called the United Islam Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan. Malik's spokesman, General Fauzi, says talks with the Taliban would be held through this platform.
The writing on the wall is clear. "All Afghan parties claim they support my peace initiative, but unfortunately I have a feeling that they see a military solution as more important than negotiations," UN special envoy Norbert Holl told reporters in the Afghan capital. Holl agreed there was little chance of a ceasefire taking effect in Afghanistan as warring sides brace for more fighting to consolidate on the gains and regain territories lost to rivals.
However, what has made the situation even more dangerous is the ethnic and sectarian dimension of the conflict. Stories of the killing of the mainly Pushtoon Taliban in Mazar-i-Sarif at the hands of the Shiite hazaria faction of Hazb-i-Wahdat and Uzbek fighters has sparked general resentment in Pushtoon areas. Both the Taliban and the rival opposition forces try to play down the ethnic divide but the fact remains that it is sharper than ever. In fact, it was used by ousted Uzbek warlord Dostum to drum up support for his alliance in the north. "No political or ethnic group in Afghanistan is strong enough to impose its rule on the whole of the country," notes Holl.
Analysts agree that the present Afghan situation has the potential to trigger conflict in Central Asia. The signs are already there, with the Taliban closing down the Iranian embassy in Kabul and Tehran openly urging Afghanistan's northern neighbours to support the anti-Taliban alliance Islamabad's recognition of the Kabul government, analysts say, has not helped things either. They believe Pakistan could have used the 'recognition' as a bargaining chip to persuade the Taliban into moderating their policies and showing more openness towards other groups.
"What we are witnessing today in Afghanistan in something very dangerous and explosive. We are sitting on a powder keg, waiting for it to go off and whose effects would be felt in the entire region," says an Afghan analyst. And with the international community not able to agree to a co-ordinated peace plan, that seems a distinct possibility.
