EVEN on the map BISTEC looks as odd as it sounds. Only two members of the four-nation trade bloc--Bangladesh India Sri Lanka Thailand Economic Cooperation--share a land border. But there is more in common among the signatories than it would seem at first glance.
Hopes ran high at the low-key launch in Bangkok recently. BISTEC would not have come about had SAARC--and more particularly SAPTA, Signed about 18 months ago adequately addressed its members' needs. India, desperate for direct foreign investment to propel its development, needed to join such a bloc.
Foreign affairs spokesmen in Calcutta point out that Pakistan's insistence on settling its "unfinished political agenda" (Kashmir) prior to initiating any substantive economic dialogue within SAARC led to a virtual stalemate. Even 18 months after SAPTA, only 2,000 items have been identified for mutual trade--most of them without export potential. For the others, existing tariffs, quotas and restrictions remain in place.
When India embraced the quadrangle concept of growth with Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal to counter the slackening trade growth in south Asia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka promptly protested against what they perceived was a sub-group intended to "isolate" other members. But the concerned four went ahead and initiated strong measures. They included reopening border trade between India and Bangladesh; India's permission to Nepal to use a 61-km long corridor through north Bengal to send goods to Bangladesh; proposals to open new trade routes through Bangladesh linking mainland India with Tripura and the establishment of an Asian railway project linking Iran in the west to Thailand in the east; and the Ganga water-sharing treaty with Dhaka.
The Gujral doctrine of good neighbourliness seems to have paid off. "I.K. Gujral is the first Indian PM to have spent three days in Nepal on an official visit whereas his predecessors did not spend more than a day," said an observer. In return for the corridor, Nepal assured India that it would not allow its territory to be used by India baiting insurgents. Dhaka adopted a similar stance and actually arrested some Indian insurgents, who now can only take shelter in Myanmar and Bhutan. Even in Myanmar India's standing has improved.
The quadrangle also assures dividends for India economically. The country sells around Rs 3,500 crore worth of goods to Bangladesh and buys around Rs 50 crore worth of items. With expected increase in trade with the the Northeast and earnings from the Chittagong port, as also freight storage and other charges expected to accrue from the trade route linking the Indian mainland with Tripura, economists in Bangladesh say the nation could earn more than Rs 3,000 crore.
BISTEC, indeed, offers an even larger potential. The THAI CP group has made investments in China to the tune of $3 billion. There's no reason why such investments will not flow to India. Interestingly, it was Thailand which took the initiative in forming ASEAN. It also proposed a membership for Myanmar, but the country had recently joined ASEAN, Of which Thailand is a member. India is a full dialogue partner
in ASEAN. "Joining BISTEC makes sense for India given its experience with SAPTA and ASEAN," says an economist.
The membership would also help India reorient its planning and policy priorities. The UNDP report on human development says Thailand eradicated malnutrition in 10 years through measures like monitoring the weight of schoolchildren, providing special lunches or supplementary diet through rural medical centres and schools. It also spent huge sums to ensure literacy and provide technical and scientific education. "India can certainly emulate these efforts," says an international relations expert from Jadavpur University. American diplomatic sources in Calcutta welcome the BISTEC since they would like to see economic resurgence in south Asian countries that constitute the underbelly of China.
The UNDP report, while praising India's anti-poverty efforts, points to the lack of political will to launch an all-out assault on poverty. Given the disparate nature of BISTEC members and the uneven economic development in the countries, only a very adroit political stewardship will ensure the success of the first multinational trade blee in south-east Asia. For Pakistan the message is clear: countries thirsting for development will not wait until the Kashmir dispute is settled. They will take their own decisions. Even Bhutan, with a per capita income of around $450 (as per its own official figures), is impatient with the slow pace of progress in various SAARC for over the years.
