VELUPILLAI Prabhakaran, the legendary leader of the LTTE, turned 41 on November 26. But missing were the Heroes' Week celebrations—which coincides with thesupremo's birthday—in the rebel stronghold of Jaffna Peninsula to honour the cadres killed in the 12-year-old war for a separate Tamil state in the north and east of the island country. For, with the Sri Lankan Army relentlessly tightening its grip on Jaffna town, Prabhakaran had little cause to celebrate.
In fact, it's now a question of when, not if, Jaffna will fall. "We entered Jaffna city at 7 am on November 21, when we captured the Nallur area," announced military spokesman Brigadier Sarath Munasinghe. The storming of the town was led by the Sri Lankan Army's elite Special Forces Brigade. The highly skilled commandos and soldiers of the Rapid Deployment Force and the Airborne Force took over from the regular troops forthe last phase of Operation Riviresa (Sunrise). While one group moved eastwards into the city from Nallur, another skirted around the south of the city and cut off the supply and escape routes of the Tigers from the rebel-held Vadamarchhi and Thenmarchchi divisions in the east and the islands of Karaitivu, Kayts and Mandavitivu in the west. "We have effectively cut off Jaffna town from the rest of the peninsula,"
At the time of going to the press, the bat-tle for the densely built-up city areas was intense. "They have booby-trapped almost every building. It is going to be slow progress," admitted Munasinghe. The fierce fighting has resulted in the highest number of deaths in Sri Lankan military history. Since the offensive on Jaffna began last month, at least 494 soldiers have been killed and 2,400 injured. The army estimates the rebel casualties at 1,600 killed and 4,400 wounded. More than 50,000 people have been killed since the ethnic conflict began over a decade ago.
With its efforts concentrated in the Jaffna peninsula, the army is finding it dif-ficult to counter the rebels in the east, especially in Batticaloa. "The east has less than a bare minimum of troops because all the personnel have been deployed in the peninsula. It has given the Tigers an edge," said an army officer in Batticaloa. Close to a 100 soldiers and policemen have been killed in rebel attacks in the eastern Batticaloa district in the last two weeks.
The rebels have also carried out successful operations against the air force on the seas off the Jaffna peninsula. An AN-32 transport plane from the Ratmalans air base with 62 military personnel on board was shot down into the sea minutes before landingat the sprawling Palali air base. It was the second transport plane to be downedin four days. Earlier, a flotilla of rebel boats had opened fire on a Y-8military transport plane which crashed into the sea, killing five of thesix-member-crew.
The destructionof the two planes, which military analysts said was carried out usinganti-aircraft missiles, sent shock waves through the defence establishment. Airforce pilots refused to fly to Jaffna thereafter. "It is not just the massivelogistical problems created by this, but also the severe psychological setbackto the army, that has to be sorted out," said a senior military official. Theloss of two of the four biggest military transport planes will strain thearmy라이브 바카라 supply lines, but officials said it would not affect the offensiveimmediately. "We have enough supplies to carry on with. But it will delay thesupply time-table which will cause some problems in the future," the officersaid. What is of immediate concern, however, is the speedy evacuation of injuredsoldiers to Colombo. The military is blaming the navy – for not securing theseas of Palali – for not securing the sea off Palali –- for the debacle."The navy has yet again proved to be the weakest link," a former armycommander said.
As the armyencircled Jaffna town, Prabhakaran retreated to the heavily-fortified One-Four(14) base deep in the jungles of Mullaitivu in the northern mainland. The rebelsoldiers who were sent to the battlefront by Prabhakaran to stop the armyadvance have escaped to Chavakachcheri in the south of the city, where they areexpected to put up a last-ditch battle. More than 75,000 refugees are said to bein Chavakachcheri, while at least a lakh more are in Kilinochhi, in the northernmainland.
The army isaware of this exodus. "They have a number of important camps in the area.Forcing all the civilians in Jaffna town to flee to Chavakachcheri is a clearsign that they are going to fight back," said Munasinghe. At present the armyis keen to keep up the momentum and capture the entire peninsula. "With thetaking of Jaffna, phase one of Operation Riviresa will be over. But operationsto crush the LTTE will continue," said Deputy Defence Minister, ColonelAnurudha Ratwatta. Earlier, hours after the AN-32 crashed into the sea,Munasinghe declared: "Even if the air force is grounded and the navy isineffective, we will continue."
In a radioaddress to the nation on November 23, President Chandrika BandaranaikeKumarantunga said: "Our gallant soldiers are on the verge of concluding thefirst phase of our battle for peace." But she appealed to the people tocelebrate the victory peacefully, saying, "I have instructed the securitypersonnel to deal severely with anyone who uses this critical period to inciteviolence against the Tamils.바카라 웹사이트
The army isalso gearing up to tackle a possible Sinhalese backlash. Ratwatta, who iscurrently riding a wave of popular support, issued a stern warning. "Amidstthe jubilation for the defeat of terrorism in Jaffna, undesirable elements, inthe name of patriotism, will try to create communal disturbance, paving the wayfor looting and destruction of life and property of innocent Tamils. Thesepeople, the so-called patriots, should be rounded up and sent to Colombo. Theywill then be flown to Palali by helicopter. There they will be trained in theuse of weapons before being deployed on the battlefield," he said at a meetingof senior police officers.
As for therebels, they are making it clear that all is not over for them. "We will showthe government what the LTTE is before November 28," Thamil Chelvam, leader ofthe LTTE라이브 바카라 political wing, warned at a public meeting in the north last week."We are not taking his threat lightly. We have intelligence reports that theLTTE is planning certain moves. They will want to prove a point after losingJaffna and the Heroes’ Week will be the time they will want to do it,"admitted a senior military intelligence officer. According to Dr PaikiasothySaravanamuttu, a research consultant at the Institute of Policy Research atColombo University, the LTTE will do its best to deny the army control over thearea they claim as Tamil Eelam. If the army encroaches, the rebels will makesure that the costs are high.
The rebels havein the past massacred Sinhalese civilians living in the border villages andcarried out retaliatory attacks on the capital, Colombo. The government is nowworried that any further attacks on the capital and against civilians wouldtrigger a backlash against the hundreds of minority Tamils living in the south."At one level, the mood in the south is that this is a victory and some sortof conclusion to the conflict. At another level, there is anxiety that this willopen the door to more atrocities by the LTTE. And if this is celebrated as agreat military victory, there is always the possibility of anti-Tamil violence.The other great danger is that any hope of implementing the political packagewill be undermined," said Saravanamuttu.
Well aware ofthis, the president was treading cautiously. In her radio address, Kumaratungastressed: "The end of the war does not mean peace. We must establish civilrule in the north. We also have to resolve the grievances of the Tamil communitywhich have prevailed since independence and negotiate a lasting politicalsolution. Only then can we ensure lasting peace."
Most Sinhalesein the south appear to be preparing for celebrations in anticipation of the fallof Jaffna. The increase in the sale of firecrackers has caused great concern inColombo, for any such celebration would end with attacks on the Tamils. "Thereis nothing to be jubilant about, particularly when we are trying to resolve aproblem by which we can all live in peace by respecting each other라이브 바카라identity," said Dharmasiri Senanayake, media minister and cabinet spokesman."We are only trying to mitigate terrorism so that we can find a politicalsolution to the problem."
But a lot willdepend on the attitude of LTTE supremo Velupillai Prabhakaran. He has alwaysworked on the premise that time is on his side and that as long as he keeps thewar alive, there is a chance of achieving his dream of a separate state. AsSaravananmuttu observes: "In strategic terms, the government needs a quickfix, while Prabhakaran believes history is on his side. The army has to win thewar, while the LTTE only has to make sure it will not be wiped out."
