It’s Yesterday Once More

Thus ended Benazir’s second stint in power in eight years. While on both occasions, the main charges were rampant corruption, deteriorating law and order and failing to run the government in accordance with the Constitution, this time Leghari went a step further. He accused the Benazir government of extra-judicial killings, especially in Karachi, her insinuations implicating the Presidency and the armed forces in connection with the murder of Murtaza Bhutto on September 20, and bugging the phone lines of judges and high ranking military and civil officers.

As their Supreme Commander, Leghari’s action appeared to have the full backing of the armed forces, with troops being deployed at key government installations. Both Benazir and her husband, Asif Zardari, were taken into ‘protective custody’. While Benazir was restricted to the Prime Minister’s House, Zardari was picked up from Lahore and kept at a resthouse near Rawalpindi.

For a whole day, nobody was allowed to talk to Benazir. Late on November 5, she was allowed to see some of her party leaders. However, she did not receive any news of her husband till the night of November 6. She then threatened that if she was not told about his whereabouts, she would register a kidnapping case against Leghari. Within hours, the authorities took her for a meeting with Zardari.

The army played a key role in all this. Sources say that this August, the army had warned Leghari about the growing unrest in its ranks over the rampant corruption on Zardari’s part and had even given him evidence of that. In fact, the image of the forces being behind Leghari was reinforced when the chiefs of the army, navy and air force attended the swearing-in ceremony of caretaker Prime Minister Malik Meraj Khalid. The manner in which the Benazir government was dismissed almost seemed like a coup. Army troops took positions at important places in the federal capital. Normally they don’t stay for more than a few hours. But this time it was longer, further strenghtening the feeling that the military establishment wanted to ensure that everything moved smoothly till the very end.

Benazir’s removal had been on the cards for quite some time. But nobody expected the dismissal to come so soon and in such a dramatic late night operation. In fact, many observers called it a "display of indecent haste and chaos". Till a couple of hours before the swearing-in, the search was on for suitable candidates for the interim cabinet. Apart from the nomination of caretaker Prime Minister Malik Meraj Khalid, a veteran of Benazir’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), everything seemed haphazard. That proper homework hadn’t been done was also evident from the fact that the provincial assemblies could not be dissolved even two days after the National Assembly’s dissolution. It was only on November 7 that the Sindh assembly was dissolved and Mumtaz Bhutto, a former PPP leader and estranged uncle of Benazir, made chief minister. In Punjab a legal hitch came up with the Lahore High Court’s decision a few days earlier that the Punjab assembly could not be dissolved for 10 days.

What with so much confusion, Islamabad was rife with all kinds of theories. One was that at the Leghari-Benazir meeting on November 4, something went terribly wrong. Perhaps she was asked by the president to resign and refused. Hence, Leghari, apprehending that Benazir could preempt him, decided to move. But Benazir denies this. The president’s coterie remains silent.

The second view is the president had an inkling that Benazir had reached some kind of an understanding with opposition leader Nawaz Sharif and feared that they would either move an impeachment motion against him or revoke the Eight Amendment which empowers him to dissolve the assemblies. Since its introduction in 1985 by General Zia-ul-Haq, this Article has been used to remove four elected governments. Whenever the establishment feels the government of the day is not in line with its dictates or there is a political crisis, the Article is invoked.

ANOTHER rather outlandish view doing the rounds is that Zardari was attempting to become chairman of the Senate, the Upper House of Parliament. The chairman automatically becomes the acting president in the absence of the president. That means he could have then performed the duties of Supreme Commander, a possibility the armed forces would not have liked.

Murtaza’s murder also holds the key to many riddles. Some insiders say that either the army had got hold of some crucial evidence against Benazir’s government or she had been able to detect who was behind the assassination. Yet another view is that the president was just a pawn and the decision was taken by the army. "He just played into their hands and went according to the drill," says a member of the PPP.

In her first post-dismissal press conference, Benazir said she had known for several weeks that Leghari was planning to dislodge her government: "Every time I asked him, he would say categorically that there was no such thing in the offing. In fact, he’d take great pains to assure me that he would not dissolve the assemblies." Asked if electing Leghari as the president was a mistake, she disagreed: "I trusted him like a brother. It was just that his chair went to his head." Benazir, who says she’s the victim of a conspiracy, is all set to approach the court for the restoration of her government. "The murder of my brother Murtaza was part of a premeditated conspiracy to destabilise my government," she claimed.

But the odds are heavily stacked against her. The courts have been quite hostile to her over the last few months for her interference in the judiciary. She is now trying to turn her case into a Sindh versus Punjab battle. Her argument: if the government of a Punjabi prime minister like Nawaz Sharif could be restored, then why couldn’t hers? (Sharif’s government was dismissed in April 1993 by former president Ghulam Ishaq Khan, but was restored three months later by the Supreme Court, which held the President’s order illegal.) In the process, Benazir hopes to recapture her once overwhelming popularity in her home province. "I want the courts to state that even a prime minister from a smaller province can be restored," she said.

Leghari has promised that the next elections would be held within 90 days, as stipulated in the Constitution. The elections are scheduled for February 3, which falls in the holy month of Ramadan. But there are serious apprehensions whether polls will actually be held. Benazir says the mysterious circumstances in which her government was toppled reminded her of Zia-ul-Haq who had come for 90 days and ended up ruling the country for more than 11 years. The dismissed interior minister Naseerullah Babar says by dissolving the assemblies, Leghari has been trapped. He argues that for three years the Bhutto government had been trying to collect information against Sharif and others for corruption and those cases are still pending. "How does the president propose to do this in 90 days," he asks.

However, the PML (Nawaz) secretary-general, Sartaj Aziz, whose party is jubilant over the dissolution, says: "We have no basis to doubt the president’s intentions. In his meeting with Sharif on September 26, he had assured us that he would do everything according to the Constitution."

BUT other politicians would prefer the caretaker to stay a while. The Jamaat-e-Islami chief, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, has already pronounced that elections should not be held before a comprehensive process of accountability is finalised. Cricketer- turned-politician Imran Khan has also taken the same line. Welcoming the dismissal, he said that having got rid of corrupt rulers, the economy must be put back on track before polls are conducted. Though he has said he will contest forthcoming polls, Khan is no doubt aware that despite the huge crowds he draws, he is still an untested political commodity and cannot make a serious bid for power without a proper party organisation.

The PML(N) disagrees. Aziz points out that in March 1997 half of the Senate is to be re-elected and "if there is no National Assembly, the Senate would become infructuous". He also supports the president’s powers to dissolve assemblies: "There could be some improvements in Article 58(2)-B, but I think it’s a good provision. It provides a safeguard against direct military intervention. Had it been there in 1977, Zia-ul-Haq couldn’t have imposed martial law." Significantly, the media hasn’t seemed unduly perturbed by Benazir’s dismissal, but has warned against postponing the elections. Said the Dawn: "It would be tragic if these voices are heeded (of not holding the elections) because Pakistan throughout its history has paid a heavy price for constitutional deviationism." It is being increasingly speculated that Benazir may not get a fair deal in the next elections. After all, she was not dismissed merely to be re-elected three months later. With the investigation in the Murtaza murder case under way and the order of the Sindh high court to the Karachi police to register the complaint of Murtaza’s widow, Ghinwa, things might just be hotting up for Benazir and her husband. Ghinwa has already blamed Zardari for Murtaza’s killing.

The Mohajir Quami Movement is also taking full advantage of the situation and plans filing cases of murder against Benazir and members of her cabinet. Buoyed by the president’s order on extra-judicial killings, they won’t sit back. This may also delay the elections. Sources say the possibility of the caretaker government moving the Supreme Court to seek an extension of its term by two years can’t be ruled out. The extension may be sought on the ground that it wants to "hold a census in the country, due since 1991, prepare correct electoral rolls, besides completing the accountability of politicians". Pakistan has been under pressure from international donor agencies to hold a census, which the government finds extremely difficult because of differences between the four provinces. Sources say Leghari had been told two months ago that if such a petition was moved, an extension could be obtained from the court, under the "doctrine of necessity" (formulated by the Supreme Court which endorsed the imposition of martial law after Zia overthrew Zulfikar Ali Bhutto).

IT is in this context that Sharif’s euphoria may be somewhat misplaced. According to one report, the establishment’s ‘agenda’ includes taking both Sharif and Benazir to task. But PML(N)optimists believe that with Benazir out of the way, they would have an easy sailing. There are two major political parties—the PPP and the PML(N)—and an election is bound to see a straight fight between Benazir and Sharif once again. At present, Sharif has a clear edge. Not only has Benazir lost a lot of support in the country, especially in Punjab, her party is also passing through the worst organisational crisis. Her autocratic style of functioning has alienated a large number of her party leaders. Leghari, who enjoys some influence among politicians in south Punjab, is believed to be working for the creation of a separate group within Benazir’s PPP. He has already managed to allure Senator Shafqat Mehmood, a one-time close Benazir aide, into the caretaker cabinet. If the president does manage a division in the PPP ranks, Bhutto would be up against some of the most difficult odds in her political career.

Barring her allies in the government, every political party has welcomed her dismissal. Among the public also, there is a perceptible air of relief. Ironically, even as Benazir was blamed for deteriorating law and order, people celebrated her dismissal by firing in the air. Interestingly, there was no great show of protest by Benazir’s supporters in the streets.

There was a sole dissenting voice from the opposition. The PML(N)’S Syed Iftikhar Gilani, who quit the PPP in 1993 after Benazir refused to cooperate with Sharif on removing the controversial Article 58(2)-B from the Constitution, expressed concern over the dismissal. "In the last eight years four assemblies have been sent packing. The people who are feeling delighted today may not be so happy tomorrow," he said. He added that since never had a deposed prime minister been detained after the dissolution, if the president did not initiate across-the-board accountability, his action would seem suspect.

Leghari’s dilemma is that if he proceeds only against Benazir and her husband, she would surely exploit it and portray herself as a victim. If he initiates action on a bigger scale, three months would definitely not be enough.

Questions are also being raised about Leghari’s selection of caretakers. Most of the interim ministers are his personal acquaintances. So much so that his brother-in-law Zubair Khan has also been inducted into the cabinet. The massive bureaucratic reshuffle saw most of the key posts being taken over by persons who were either Leghari’s batchmates or else class fellows. (Leghari was himself a civil servant till the mid-’70s.) Besides, his decision to hand over economic management to Shahid Javed Burki, Ishrat Hussain and Zubair, who have all been inducted from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, have raised eyebrows. It indicates that he will facilitate the compromise the Bank and the IMF want. The Pakistan economy is in a shambles, but whether Burki and his colleagues can cut the defence expenditure, as demanded by the IMF, is uncertain.

No wonder a senior politician, on condition of anonymity, argued that either Leghari is moving towards a presidential system or a situation is being created where the army takes over. But that, given the prevailing international situation, seems unlikely. The army has ruled from behind the scenes and it will continue doing so. And as Pakistan’s polity prepares for another phase of uncertainty, its graduation to a mature democracy remains a far-off dream.