Kerala's birth rate has plummeted by 35% over the past decade, raising serious concerns about the state's demographic future.
In 2014, the state welcomed 534,000 newborns, but by 2024, this number had dropped to just 345,000, according to recent data of the Directorate of Health Service of Kerala.
This trend of decline in birth rate is widespread across the state, affecting all 14 districts. Nine districts across central and southern Kerala now report birth rates below the state average.
Experts note that these regions, which are generally more developed than their northern counterparts, demonstrate a correlation between improved living conditions and lower birth rates.
According to Dr. Anil Chandran, Head of the Department of Demography at Kerala University, this trend might impact Kerala's economic growth in the coming years.
Of particular concern is the declining female fertility rate in the state, which is decreasing faster than the national average.
“When birth rates decline, population demographics shift dramatically.
"Initially, the number of children (ages 3-14) decreases, eventually affecting the working-age population (ages 15-59),” says Dr Kammappa K E, a senior gynaecologist who has done an empirical study on the trend.
Until 2021, Kerala maintained a robust working-age population, but experts predict this group will shrink considerably as fewer children enter this demographic.
This shift presents significant challenges. As the proportion of elderly citizens (60 and above) increases, the state will need to allocate more resources for healthcare and social welfare programs like pensions, all while having fewer working-age individuals to support these initiatives.
“The total population of the elderly has already reached 20% of the total population. This declining trend in birth rate not only raises concerns about the declining work force and the economic impact. Elderly care has become an important concern. The Government has already been implementing elderly care programmes through local self-governments including palliative care,” says Veena George, the Minister for Health.
Several factors contribute to the declining birth rate. Economic development typically correlates with lower birth rates and infant mortality. Historically, agricultural economies favored larger families to provide farm labor.
However, industrialization, rising living costs, and improved access to family planning methods have all contributed to smaller family sizes.
The current fertility rate in Kerala stands at approximately 1.46 as of 2023, with projections suggesting it may drop to 1.35 based on last year's figures. This falls significantly below the replacement fertility level of 2.1 children per woman—a threshold Kerala had already achieved back in 1987-88.
"We used to take pride that maternal mortality rate in Kerala was lower than America. But when examining last year's statistics, we see that the MMR has increased from 19 per lakh to 34,” says Dr Kammath.
He explains that this apparent increase is actually a statistical effect of having approximately 2.5 lakh fewer births compared to 2011.
More than 1000 schools on the verge of closure
The impact of this demographic shift is already evident in the education sector. According to the latest data from the Education Department, 1,197 schools in Kerala have fewer than 25 students during the 2024-25 academic year, up from 961 schools in the previous year.
Pathanamthitta district alone has 216 such schools, followed by Kottayam with 168. Notably, Pathanamthitta also has the lowest population growth rate in the state.
The correlation between poverty and population is evident considering the case of the districts having the lowest birth rate in Kerala. Pathanamthitta and Kottayam were the districts having zero poverty in the country according to the last two National Family Health Surveys.
Among these schools with dwindling enrollment, 452 are government schools and 745 are aided schools. 34 government schools and 160 aided institutions are operating with fewer than 10 students.
Dr. Kammappa highlights how societal attitudes have evolved: "Previously it was 'We are two, we need two,' but now it has changed to 'We are one, we need one.'
Moreover, the age at which people marry is now increasing. The number of young people who decide not to marry at all is also increasing."
The long-term implications are concerning. With only about 315,000 children born last year but infrastructure designed for approximately 600,000 students, educational institutions will face closures, and teachers will likely face unemployment.
This contraction will inevitably spread to other sectors, from retail to healthcare.
Medical facilities are already experiencing the impact.
WHO stipulates one doctor per 1,000 people, but Kerala's ratio has already dropped below 500:1. In districts like Pathanamthitta, where population decline has been most severe, many private hospitals are on the verge of closure.
"If we continue in this manner for 20-25 years, then the number of young people available to work in the state will decrease dramatically," warns Dr. Kammappa.
"It is certain that Kerala will become an old-age home with a majority of elderly people and no young people to work."
Youth migration on the rise
“Migration is an important factor” says Dr Irudayarajan, the founder of the International Institute for Migration and Development. The migration of the youth shows a rising trend while the migration for occupation in general has reached a saturation point.
Kerala has been the one of the states having the highest migration and foreign remittance over a couple of decades. According to the 2023 Kerala Migration survey headed by Dr Irudayarajan, one among the five holds in Kerala has the least one family member working abroad.
According to the KMS 2023, the number of emigrants from Kerala is estimated to be 2.2 million, closely aligning with the 2.1 million recorded in the KMS 2018.
Although there is a slight increase in the total number of emigrants, 9 out of the 14 districts in Kerala observed a considerable decline in the number of emigrants when compared to 2018, indicating a saturation of international migration.
On the other hand the emigration of the youth for educational purpose is on the rise. The KMS 2023 has revealed that students constitute 11.3 per cent of total emigrants from Kerala, indicating that a growing number of younger individuals are choosing to emigrate seeking educational opportunities. Student migration begins at the age of 17 . This is a also a vital factor contributing to the decline of birth rate in the State.
Women choose to remain single
"Generally, the youth, especially girls express reluctance to get married,” says Dr Nirmala Sudhakaran, gynaecologist and former head of the department of the Medical College, Thiruvananthapuram. "We cannot blame them. The exploitation of women라이브 바카라 labour and the gender discrimination being practiced within the families keep them away."
"Girls give more focus to studies and career rather than family, this change is very much palpable in the society,” she says. She also says that the number of young couples who decide not to have children are also on the rise. "It is indeed clear that infertility, particularly among men is a cause of concern. The number of infertility clinics have achieved huge growth in the State. At the same time, the youth who decide not to have children is also rising," says Dr Nirmala.
According to an empirical study done by Nitin A F, a consultant psychologist, there is a sharp decline in the number of girls who are interested in marriage. The study which has been done by collecting data from matrimonial websites and wedding agents, show that female profiles registered on matrimonial sites are 57 per cent less compared to male profiles. This is the same across all religious communities, shows the data.
As per the Sample Registration Survey Report of 2018, Tamil Nadu and Kerala have the highest proportion of single women living independently in India.
The report highlights that the number of such women in these two states is double the national average. Approximately 9.3% of women in Kerala and 9.2% in Tamil Nadu are single, including widows, divorcees, or those separated from their spouses. The recent studies show that there is a surge in the number of girls who chooses to remain single.
