Together with this is Islamabad's plea that today Kashmir is beyond being just a bilateral issue. By welcoming mediation from around the globe, it has succeeded in its attempts to internationalise the core issue. As the debris of the Pokhran and Chagai tests settles, it is now over the picturesque valley that brownie points are being sought.
Of special interest here is the sudden change of positions by prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. From threats to attack Pakistani Kashmir, he has suddenly executed a U-turn and offered serious talks on Kashmir. But if the past is anything to go by, it is felt that Islamabad would be foolish to fall into this trap. "Despite this offer from Vajpayee, keeping in view the past experiences, Pakistan wants that bilateral talks should be held in the presence of a neutral mediator," declares foreign minister Gohar Ayub Khan. "Our experiences have shown that whenever such talks were initiated, these assumed the shape of propaganda without any output because India used to raise legal points and tried to put aside the question of Kashmir. When India holds talks with Pakistan, New Delhi resorts to massive scale bloodshed in Jammu and Kashmir. Kashmiris start complaining that when you enter into talks with India, this causes a great blow to our pro-independence movement. It is due to this reason we have adopted the stand that a third party should come and join the bilateral talks."
THESE sentiments were echoed in the joint house of Parliament when the Pakistani government responded to criticism from the opposition about any future moves to hold talks with New Delhi. The past efforts of prime minister Nawaz Sharif came under scathing attacks in the special session called to give a green light to the imposition of emergency in the country. The Pakistan People's Party was particularly lethal in its criticism, accusing Sharif of leading a weak and spineless government which gave the Indians a chance to go nuclear. "The world has realised that the real problem between India and Pakistan is Kashmir. It is for this reason that whenever international pressure is on the Indians, they turn to talks. This is a ploy that they have used in the past also. The time is right now for Pakistan to take advantage of the situation," said senator Zafar-ul-Haq, leader of the house in the Senate, trying to pacify the opposition.
It is not only the opposition which is against sitting with the Indians across the table. Analysts are also cautioning against a "trap" being set up once again by New Delhi. They point out that India has historically wriggled out of past situations of international engagement on Kashmir by agreeing to talks and then grinding the bilateral dialogue to dust. "Given the opportunity it will use the same tactic again. To be productive, Indo-Pakistan negotiations must be situated in a sustained United Nations effort to assist the parties concerned vigorously to identify elements of a solution. There are other models involving mediation by the major powers but it is yet to be seen if these powers are determined enough to persevere in the face of an instant knee-jerk rejection by India," says Tanvir Ahmad Khan, a former foreign secretary.
A lot depends on the meeting between Sharif and Vajpayee in Colombo for the SAARC summit next month. Will they hit it off? It is doubtful. The Gujral-Sharif "masala" appears to be missing and for a leader of the hardcore Muslim League to talk in the same language with the head of the BJP remains unlikely.
Finally, it is not only Washington that has suddenly discovered Kashmir. The P-5 and the UN Security Council have all acknowledged that the real reason for the setback to peace and stability in South Asia and for the cause of global non-proliferation lies in the unresolved Kashmir dispute. UN secretary-general Kofi Annan's decision to send a special envoy to Pakistan and India is being seen as the first major international move to resolve the Kashmir problem. The offer came in a telephone talk between Annan and Sharif last week, with the Pakistani premier bringing up the decades-old UN resolutions on the Kashmir.
An offer to mediate also came from Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed, who telephoned Sharif and told him she was willing to visit Pakistan and play a role in solving Indo-Pak problems, including Kashmir.
Back in Washington, assistant secretary of state Karl Inderfurth said: "We are absolutely convinced that it is time now for India and Pakistan to meet, to discuss, to resume the dialogue and to address the fundamental issue that had divided the two countries for 50 years. It has been recognised for a very long time that Kashmir is a fundamental dispute between the two countries; and it is absolutely essential now that nuclear weapons have been added to this very volatile mistrust that the two countries direct themselves to resolve this dispute as quickly as they can."
However, this time around Uncle Sam may beg and plead and even go as far as to promise fresh incentives to India and Pakistan to get down to talks. But the new realities in the region where both countries have gatecrashed into the nuclear club cannot be ignored. That Washington's policies for South Asia have boomeranged is there for all to see. Meanwhile, Pakistanis are convinced that unless there is a show of seriousness from New Delhi that the day of reckoning is finally here, even third party interference would hardly be the answer.
