It's been an explosive summer in Pakistan. As if basking in the warmth of the six nuclear blasts was not enough, prime minister Nawaz Sharif decided to heat things up further by declaring a state of emergency. His detractors say that a glance at his political career clearly indicates his tendency to become restless when things are going fine for him and he is free to rule. He has this uncanny habit of looking for trouble and finding it even if he has to dig deeper than the tunnels in the Chagai desert. But this time it is alleged that his heavy mandate, like a crazy elephant, is trampling even his own soldiers.
After throwing out president Farooq Ahmed Leghari, who had the full support of the army at one time, Sharif also managed to show the way out to a sitting chief justice who dared cross swords with him. Earlier, a sitting naval chief had been also set adrift. He had already humbled the opposition, and had the full support of all three provinces which were led either by the Muslim League, as in Punjab, or with allies as in the other three provinces. The nuclear blasts put a halo around his head as he got the whole nation to stand firmly behind him.
But all this was too good to last, and Sharif's latest controversial moves—mainly the imposition of emergency and the decision to go ahead with the controversial Kalabag dam project, of which Punjab is said to be the main beneficiary—has at least one Punjabi cynic saying: "Now Sharif will not rest till he has formed his Islamic Emirates of the Punjab."
By clamping emergency, Sharif has given himself a blank cheque on which the first Punjabi PM signs policies as and when he pleases. There is a genuine fear that Sharif alone knows what he will sign next. In this uncertainty lies the danger. Will he now go for nationalisation? In fact, by suspending fundamental rights, he has taken away the rights of citizens by shutting the doors of the courts in their faces. Of course, millions in Pakistan are unaware of their rights in the first place, so they have not been hit so far by this denial. Others, who thought they could move the courts when the government froze their foreign currency accounts, were the first to cry foul.
Immediately afterwards, Sharif announced the construction of the controversial Kalabag Dam. "Over our dead bodies," responded the smaller provinces, even though they now have no recourse to courts.But Sharif was still not satisfied. His Muslim League parliamentarians in Baluchistan suddenly brought a vote of no confidence against chief minister Akther Mengal with Sharif making polite noises that he would expel these rebels from the party. But would these legislators, who were ministers in Mengal's cabinet, have taken such a serious step without a wink from the centre?
Instability in a province like Baluchistan, which is ruled by tribal chieftans, could set off a dangerous, anarchic cycle. Reports indicate that the move against Mengal came because he had protested to the centre about being ignored during the Chagai nuclear blast in his province, and hence had even threatened to arrest the scientists who were still there at the time under the Explosives Act.
The main bone of contention for two other crucial provinces, Sindh and the NWFP, is the Kalabag Dam. Strangely, Sharif has made no allocations in the fiscal budget for the dam, which is estimated at nearly $10 billion. Legislators both at the centre and in NWFP tore budget documents before walking out of the assemblies.
And Sindh is fast slipping out of Sharif's hand, with chief minister Liaquat Jatoi sending a clear signal to the prime minister that he is not ready to compromise on "national interests" just to keep a Muslim League government in power in Sindh. The Muslim League parliamentary committee in Sindh has already moved a resolution against the dam.
Pressure is also mounting against the League chief minister of NWFP, Mehtab Khan. Independents, who had so far supported him, have teamed up with members of the Awami National Party—a breakaway group which now sits in the opposition—to protest against the Kalabag project, and their numbers may be enough to topple the government.
All this has analysts and observers pondering over a single question: does Sharif realise how many fronts he has opened at a time when the state of the economy itself is enough to send most prime ministers into political oblivion? "The process of mobilising a nation of our size and diversity for the challenge that sanctions have posed is fraught with dangers, it would be suicidal to underestimate or understate them," notes former foreign secretary Tanvir Ahmad Khan. "There is little doubt that forces are afoot to exploit the current national difficulties for parochial and partisan advantage. A vastly better option in a true federation is a greatly intensified information-intensive effort to build and sustain consensus on strategies to meet a situation of national emergency."
All eyes will once again be on the Supreme Court which is perceived to be pro-Sharif. But the institution has yet to be tested under the new chief justice. For starters, Leghari and two others have moved the Supreme Court against the emergency declaration and the court has responded by asking for a larger bench to hear the case.
That Sharif is operating in a vacuum is clear from his latest budget. It almost appears that the budget for 1998-99 was prepared some time in December 1997, as it just does not seem to take cognisance of the harsh economic realities in the country. Nowhere in the budget is there a link between the national agenda that Sharif announced on state television, which calls for severe belt-tightening, and the document prepared by the finance minister.
But what is perceived to be the grimmest development is the manner in which Sharif, along with his party members, bulldozed a resolution in the National Assembly in favour of emergency. They thus kicked out the very powers that had ensured the process by which they were sitting in the lower house. Completely isolated, the Muslim League reminded many of the emperor with no clothes—-every other political party, including the MQM, an ally of the government, either abstained or voted against this law.But this was the lower house; things are bound to be different in the Senate which meets next week, what with the Muslim League rather weak in the numbers game.
Even Sharif's much trumpeted land reforms, says the Opposition, have not achieved their objective, to tax the agricultural lobby, many of whom sit on the treasury benches. Said Benazir Bhutto in the National Assembly: "Sharif has nothing to offer the nation. He talked of land reforms of 1977 which have already been implemented except by the collaborators of the martial law regime. He refuses to give up the 1,700 acres in the heart of Raiwand, which he and his family have grabbed in violation of the land reforms of 1977."
바카라 웹사이트Benazir also accused the finance minister of presenting an "ostrich's budget" which completely ignored the fallout of the Chagai nuclear tests—especially sanctions and the drying up of future loans. While Sharif travelled abroad to ask expatriates for donations, banks at home were citing a state bank order to not accept any cheques or drafts in foreign exchange. And as the euphoria over the tests subsides and economic realities start pinching, the Opposition is bound to exploit Sharif's shaky popular support.
