Ahead of the arrival of the monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted that India this year is expected to receive above-normal rainfall. The seasonal rainfall is expected to be of 105 percent of the long-period average including a model error margin of 5 percent, officials announced on Tuesday.
According to the weather watchdog, normal rainfall range lies between 96 percent and 104 percent of the 50-year average of 87 cm (about 35 inches). Any amount above this range is considered “above normal.”
In India, the southwest monsoon typically enters Kerala around June 1 and withdraws by mid-September.
According to the weather experts, key climate factors that decide the intensity of rainfall like El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently in a neutral phase which is considered favorable for a healthy monsoon.
According to IMD, this year, most parts of the country are expected to benefit from favourable rainfall conditions, with the exception of a few regions.
However, rainfall is expected to be below normal in Ladakh, the Northeast, and Tamil Nadu during the four-month monsoon season.
Extended Monsoon In 2024
According to climate experts, in 2024, the primary reason behind the extended monsoon was the slowed-down southwest monsoon onset and withdrawal leading to heavier-than-expected rainfall in northern and western parts of the country.
This year the arid and semi-arid regions of western states like Gujarat and Rajasthan witnessed a shift from moderate monsoons to heavy and very heavy ones leading to extreme conditions like floods.
Experts often point to climate change as the fundamental reason behind the unpredictable and intensifying monsoon patterns in India.
Changes in the ocean surface temperature towards the warmer direction temperatures are playing a pivotal role in bringing atmospheric changes and increasing moisture levels leading to catastrophic events triggered by heavier torrential downpours.
El Nino, La Nina events
El Nino and La Nina, the opposite extremes in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)cycle, further amplify this unpredictability of weather patterns. While El Niño causes weakened monsoons, La Nina leads to incessant rains and catastrophic floods.
El Niño, in simple words, is defined as a weather pattern involving abnormal warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean leading to extreme heat in many parts of the world and the ocean.
According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), La Niña, on the other hand, demonstrates the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface. These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward.
