Football

Manchester Derby Preview, Women's Super League Matchday 21: United Vs City Prediction, Key Stats

United have won two of their three games against City in all competitions this season (L1), as many wins as they managed across their previous 13 Manchester derbies prior to this campaign combined (W2 D4 L7)

Manchester Uniteds Leah Galton and Ella Toone
Manchester United's Leah Galton and Ella Toone
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Manchester City travel to Old Trafford for a third match against Manchester United this season. (More Football News)

There is, however, everything to play for in this derby-day match-up in the penultimate match week of the Women's Super League.

After Arsenal surprisingly dropped points in a 5-2 thumping at Aston Villa on Wednesday, Chelsea sealed a sixth straight WSL title against United. Crystal Palace are already relegated, with the European places the only things left to decide.

Arsenal sit second on 45 points with two games remaining. United trail them by two points on 43, with City in fourth, on 39, knowing they need a win on Sunday.

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The Red Devils, who need only one point to clinch a Champions League spot, have the harder run-in with this바카라 웹사이트derby and Arsenal to face on the final day. City have it a little easier, with United and already-relegated Palace.

Despite this, United are expected to hold on to a top-three finish by the Opta supercomputer, with a 78.7% chance of doing so. City, meanwhile, are given just a 21.2% chance of leapfrogging them.

Arsenal, who have one eye on their first Champions League final, will not want to slip up now, and the heavy loss to Villa will be a warning sign. With Brighton to play this week and United still to play, they need to beware of a바카라 웹사이트late overhaul.

United put up a valiant fight against Chelsea on Wednesday, but ultimately, could not stop them from clinching the WSL title in Manchester for a second consecutive season.

Marc Skinner's side will feel confident in welcoming City, though, as they have certainly been more of the dominant side in Manchester this season.

United aim to paint the town red

United have won two of their three games against City in all competitions this season (L1), as many wins as they managed across their previous 13 Manchester derbies prior to this campaign combined (W2 D4 L7).

In the reverse fixture, United humiliated the Citizens 4-2 at the Etihad Stadium thanks to Ella Toone's hat-trick.

Skinner's side also won the most recent meeting in the FA Cup semi-final, with Celin Bizet and Grace Clinton scoring in their 2-0 win to reach the final.

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United's loss to Chelsea on Wednesday was their first home league defeat of the season (W7 D2). Only once have they ever lost consecutive home games in the WSL, doing so in November and December 2023 against City and Liverpool.

Skinner has made a huge improvement this season in the league and will feel he has the opportunity to get one over their city rivals by doing the double over them for the first time in a WSL season.

Comparing this season at the 20-game stage to last season, the Citizens have the biggest negative differential between points won (-13:바카라 웹사이트52 vs 39) while only West Ham (+9) have made a better improvement than United (+8:바카라 웹사이트35 vs 43).

The Red Wall

United have conceded just three goals in their 10 WSL home games this season, keeping seven clean sheets. They last conceded more than once in a home match in their final such game of 2023-24 – a 6-0 defeat to Chelsea, which also took place at Old Trafford.

This season, they have led the way and have the best defensive record in the WSL, conceding just 10 goals, three fewer than second-best Chelsea (13).

The Red Devils have also kept a league-high 13 clean sheets. City, meanwhile,바카라 웹사이트have kept seven, while conceding 24 goals.

United have conceded 19.6 expected goals against (xGA), overperforming in defence, while City have faced 23.2 xGA. The latter have faced 203 shots overall, compared to 194 faced by United.

Phallon Tullis-Joyce has come up against 65바카라 웹사이트shots on target, and according to Opta's expected goals on target (xGoT) model, she has prevented 8.1바카라 웹사이트goals (conceded eight goals, excluding own goals/penalties, while being expected to concede 16.1).

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However, City have never failed to score against United, netting 19 goals overall. They have kept just two clean sheets against the Red Devils (13 goals conceded), failing to shut them out in the last five meetings.

City have been plagued by injuries this season, with some of their key goalscorers out, yet they have hit the back of the net바카라 웹사이트in their last 12 WSL games.

The last time they failed to score was on November 16 against Chelsea (2-0), and they have not been involved in a 0-0 draw all season.

The Citizens are the third-highest scorers in the WSL, netting 42 goals from 40.58 expected goals (xG).

They have had the third-most shots (333), with only Chelsea (397) and Arsenal (343) having more than them. City have also had the third-most shots on target (131), again behind Chelsea (140) and Arsenal (137).

United, by comparison, have scored the fourth-most goals (36 from 34.7 xG), from the fourth-most shots (274), with 99 on target.바카라 웹사이트

Hemp to bring up a century?

It has been a difficult season for Lauren Hemp, who has found herself on the sidelines for a long portion of it.

Last time out, though, she provided an assist to supply Jess Park with the goods to slot away and keep their Champions League hopes alive, with a 1-0 win at Leicester City.

Despite featuring in just a third of City's minutes played in the WSL this season (597/1800), only Mary Fowler (seven) has more assists than Lauren Hemp (six), who in 2024-25 has the best minutes per assist record in the competition's history (one바카라 웹사이트every 100 mins, min 500 mins).

The previous best was by Karen Carney, who averaged an assist every 109.5 minutes in 2016-17 (15 assists in 1,642 minutes), a marginally better record than Beth England's one every 110 minutes in 2020-21 (nine바카라 웹사이트in 990 mins).

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If Hemp is brought back into the starting XI on Sunday, she would make her 100th league start for City, but Nick Cushing may be wary of rushing her back just yet.

Before her injury lay-off, Lauren Hemp became the youngest player (24 years and바카라 웹사이트60 days) to score 50 WSL goals in a 2-0 win against West Ham in October.

The youngster will be looking to get minutes ahead of a summer where she will aim to defend her European title with the Lionesses, who have missed her in attack this season.

Man Utd v Man City Prediction

With United looking to do the first-ever league double over City, the Opta supercomputer has this one just tipped in the hosts'바카라 웹사이트favour at 41.7% for the win.

City are given a 31.6% chance of claiming victory, while the likelihood of a draw sits at 26.7%.

With European places hanging in the balance, City must go to United and aim for nothing less than a win if they want to take the drama into the final game.바카라 웹사이트

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